Despite our optimism over the potential upset brewing in the Third District, make no mistake: This is a reliably Republican district. George W. Bush won it with 68% of the vote in 2004, and there are very, very few incumbent GOP congressional representatives who even have to raise a finger in defending this kind of seat.
Which is exactly why national political observer Stu Rothenberg thinks Rep. Mark Souder should be abandoned by the cash-strapped NRCC, left to wander the wilderness by himself.
Five GOP incumbents who have benefited from a total of more than $2.2 million in NRCC spending also should have been cut loose immediately and told to fend for themselves: Reps. Randy Kuhl (New York's 29th district), Bill Sali (Idaho's 1st), Jean Schmidt (Ohio's 2nd), Mark Souder (Indiana's 3rd) and Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado's 4th).
Each of the districts represented by these incumbents is reliably Republican under normal circumstances, and their vulnerability, even in this political environment, reflects their individual weaknesses. In 2004, Bush carried Sali's district with 69 percent, Schmidt's with 64 percent, Souder's with 68 percent and Musgrave's with 58 percent. Kuhl's district was the closest of the bunch, with Bush winning it with 56 percent.
It says a great deal about Sali, Schmidt and Souder that they ran so far behind Bush. Not all conservative candidates in those districts necessarily would run so poorly. These three simply have limited appeal, and the NRCC shouldn't have to spend considerable resources every two years to rescue them in districts that they should retain easily.
Ouch.
I'll leave a defense of the potential partisan sea change we're seeing this year for another post, but I can't exactly disagree with the assessment that this is a district the Republicans theoretically shouldn't have to worry about.
If the NRCC insists on throwing good money after bad, the least we can do is throw our good after, uh, good. You get the idea: Donate to Mike Montagano today.
Governor 61% - Mitch Daniels 30% - Jill Long Thompson
Third Congressional District (MoE +/- 5.7%) 44% - Mike Montagano (D) 41% - Mark Souder (R)
This is the second independent poll to show Montagano competitive, and provides further affirmation of Obama's statewide competitiveness. The gubernatorial numbers are obviously a reason for concern, and I would imagine that even Brian Howey doesn't believe we'll see a margin that large on election night. A recent Research 2000 pegging of a 12-point race seems much more believable.
There is a lot of additional information in the full data dump, and I'm still parsing it all myself. Feel free to drop in the comments any other gems you come across.
The latest poll of the 3rd District echoes the recently leaked internal numbers of Democratic challenger Mike Montagano, and shows that Rep. Mark Souder has a highly competitive race on his hands.
45% - Mark Souder (R) 40% - Mike Montagano (D) 4% - Bill Larsen (L) 11% - Undecided
Favorable / Unfavorable / No Opinion Mark Souder -- 46% / 43% / 11% Mike Montagano -- 41% / 29% / 30%
This same poll pegged the 3rd as +15 for McCain, which sounds bad until you realize that Bush won the district in 2004 by 36 whopping points. Last night I also was told that a recent poll of the 9th District had Obama up by single digits. In the 9th District.
This congressional pick-up is a real possibility, and so is a "Blue Indiana" in just a week. But don't let your guard down! Get out there and do your part for the next seven days to make sure next Tuesday is the best it can be.
What's better than one wacky Republican congressperson opening their mouth when they shouldn't? How about a second joining in on the act?
Enter our very own Rep. Mark Souder, stage right-wing lunatic.
SOUDER: I read the whole interview. Chris Matthews tried to trick her into that question, over and over for the entire interview. Unfortunately, her last comment, she fell for the trap. No, we shouldn't have an investigation into Congress. They are elected by the people of the United States. I have full faith and confidence. Now, I think some of them, for example, Sen. Obama, should be careful who he pals around with.
In other words, Souder believes that Bachmann's very clear (and very controversial) statements were, apparently, the fault of Chris Matthews. No matter that Matthews simply asked the question, and every other reasonable person prompted in such a way recently has been able to avoid the "trap" presented by such a very simple line of inquiry.
The comments were indefensible.
The sentiment that Barack Obama is anti-American -- echoed here by Mark Souder himself -- is similarly out of line, and more importantly completely out of touch with what a clear majority of the country (and a good portion of Souder's constituency) feels.
If Mark Souder wants to tie his fortunes to the far right-wing of his party, we'll be glad to let him. The 3rd District is tired of the unproductive political games of the Bush-era, and Mike Montagano is ready to give them back the representation they deserve.
Mike Montagano is running neck-and-neck with tired incumbent Mark Souder for a reason: Voters in the 3rd District are tired of having shoddy representation from a guy who seems more interested in his twelve fantasy sports teams than serving them in Congress.
Well, that and the fact that Mark Souder is just a frick-frackin' idiot.
"We thought Obama was going to melt under pressure and be intimidated by the war hero John McCain, but in my opinion, Obama has gained strength," Souder said.
He said Republicans are supposed to be the party of business and innovators. Souder encouraged Republicans to get out and vote and stand for Republican values.
"Melt under pressure?"
The guy organized in the poverty-stricken areas of Chicago, and Mark Souder expected him to fold up and go home when he had to share a stage with John McCain's incoherent Bush-era talking points?
And just so we're clear, someone should probably tell ol' Mark that his friends in big-business land have been doing fine over the last few eight years. The rest of us are ready for our turn to be represented.
A tip o' the hat to Jeff Pruitt in the comments for pointing out this Fort Wayne Observed scoop:
Sources tell FWOb that $487,000 has been committed to television advertising by the DCCC in the Third District. That represents an approximately 1900 point buy which means even the most casual television viewer is likely to be exposed to the advertising numerous times.
The first ad is to begin running this morning.
Real money for a real race, folks. This one is on the national radar, now, so all of you in the region should get out and do your part to help Mike Montagano defeat the out-of-touch Mark Souder.
Update: Here's the first ad that hit the air this morning.
This afternoon brings more bad news for 3rd CD Rep. Mark Souder, this time from unnamed sources within his own party. The Washington-based Roll Call takes a look at the horrific playing field nationally for Republicans, and targets Democratic challenger Mike Montagano as a candidate to watch in the final weeks.
Among this group of potential upsets, Souder might be the most vulnerable. His campaign operation appears to have engendered the most criticism among Republican operatives familiar with these newly competitive races.
Montagano has raised more money than Souder, has made inroads with the 3rd district's moderate and business-minded Republicans who have never warmed to Souder's strident conservatism and has developed a reputation for being personable.
Mark Souder, on the other hand, hasn't been all that great at making friends over the last few years. Apparently this even applies to individuals within his own party...
Souder has never faced a competitive general election race, has never been a big fundraiser and is viewed as abrasive. One Indiana-based GOP operative expects the strong conservative lean of the Fort Wayne-area district and the presidential turnout to ultimately save Souder's job.
But he said the Congressman isn't doing himself any favors with his advertising, and he added that media there would be cheap for the DCCC to purchase. Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is making a strong play for Indiana's electoral votes, and his organization might also aid Montagano on Election Day.
"I think Souder's under 50, and I think it's in single digits," the Indiana Republican operative said. "Do I think it's in the margin [of error] yet? No. But Montagano doesn't have to be in the margin yet. There are still three weeks left."
First came the news that Democratic challenger Mike Montagano's effort against Rep. Mark Souder is now part of the DCCC's oft-celebrated Red to Blue program. Then came the release of polling numbers showing the contest in this +16 PVI district down to a mere five points.
And what do we have today? Word from the Cook Political Report (via Politico) that the cash-strapped Republicans are pulling money out of competitive races elsewhere to defend Mark Souder.
If 2008 looks like 2006, a new wave of veteran Republicans will be out on the streets, and the colleagues they leave behind could find themselves with the smallest minority since the post-Watergate era.
"If you're a Republican in a less-than-outstanding district, you want to have taken a poll in the last two weeks no matter who you're running against," said David Wasserman, an analyst on House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
"The DCCC has made advertising decisions that have forced Republicans' hands," he continued, mentioning Terry's seat in Nebraska and one held by conservative Rep. Mark Souder in Indiana. "Republicans, in turn, need to spend in these districts. And $500,000 to the [National Republican Congressional Committee] is a whole lot more meaningful than $500,000 to the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]."
At face value, this isn't exactly the best of news. Obviously it would have been preferable to simply have Montagano run against the anemic fundraising machine that Souder has become known for. That being said, this move does send two positive messages.
First, this district is in play. While those on the right cling to their strategy of playing dumb, those in the know recognize that a Montagano victory is increasingly likely as the GOP brand continues to nosedive in Indiana and elsewhere. And with the rumor mill churning over the great numbers for the Obama campaign in the northeast corner of our state, Montagano will only be helped by the extremely active Campaign for Change in his area.
(Michelle Obama will be visiting Fort Wayne tomorrow, in case you think I'm making this stuff up.)
Secondly, keep in mind that this now spreads the NRCC even more thin in a state they are already struggling to compete in. Mike Sodrel is underperforming in the 9th, and Congressman Baron Hill is tearing up the campaign trail with great momentum. Will the NRCC be forced to pull out of the 9th CD to play defense in the 3rd? If they try and compete in both, will they even be able to get a message out above the inescapable din of presidential politics? Could we enter 2009 with a 6-3 advantage in the congressional delegation? Could Nels Ackerson make it 7-2?
A lot of questions, and not a lot of good answers for the GOP.
Great news out of the the 3rd CD, where Democratic challenger Mike Montagano has brought Republican Mark Souder's lead down to just five points. On the heels of the DCCC's decision to add Mike to their very successful Red to Blue program, today's results reveal an upset in the making.
Some of the more interesting findings:
Cooper & Secrest 503 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4.4% October 6-7
If election was held today... 44% - Mark Souder (R) 39% - Mike Montagano (D) 4% - William Larsen (L) 13% - Undecided
Among those who have seen a Montagano ad... 32% - Mark Souder (R) 53% - Mike Montagano (D)
Souder's approval rating is still sub-fifty, with both positive and negative numbers at 48%.
This is one we can win, folks, but Mike needs your help. Be sure to head over and throw him some coin to help take out a congressman who stands against everything this election year stands for.
Good news in a race that looks better and better for us every day -- Congressional Quarterly has moved the 3rd CD race out of "Safe" territory, opening the door to an increasingly plausible upset.
Democratic strategists were encouraged to again test the waters in Indiana 3 after Souder took an underwhelming 54 percent of the vote in 2006 against Fort Wayne councilman Thomas Hayhurst. That was down from the 69 percent Souder had racked up in 2004, as Bush took 68 percent in the district.
Souder has never relished campaign fundraising, and Montagano actually had more money in his campaign account than Souder at the end of June. Updated figures, through Sept. 30, are due to be filed with the Federal Election Commission by Oct. 15.
The DCCC last week included Montagano as one of its latest inductees to the "Red to Blue" program for competitive Democratic challengers. That's also a signal to political action committees that House Democrats see Indiana 3 as a winnable race and a worthwhile investment.
Mike Montagano continues to raise money (and eyebrows) in a district that Bush won in 2004 with 68% of the vote. Fortunately for us, Souder appears to be dedicating the same amount of energy to campaigning that he does to representing the district, giving us some signs of hope -- including this recent poll -- that we have a legitimate chance of grabbing this seat.
News from the Indiana Democratic Party, which reports that Democratic challenger Mike Montagano has been targeted by the DCCC in his bid to unseat Mark Souder in the 3rd CD.
This morning, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named Third Congressional District Candidate Mike Montagano to its Red to Blue Program. Candidates named to this program are considered to be amongst the top candidates across the country, having skillfully demonstrated that they stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress.
"Mike Montagano's appointment to the Red to Blue program is further proof that Hoosiers are tired of the economic mess we're in and are clamoring for change. He is set to unseat Mark Souder and deliver results for the Third District," said Dan Parker, Chair of the Indiana Democratic Party.
The Red to Blue program targets top-tier races across the country, and brings with it national recognition and -- most importantly -- financial support. Brad Ellsworth and Joe Donnelly were both elected in 2006 with the help of this targeting.
Another great sign for a candidate who is in a completely winnable race.
Here's a trip down memory lane for you. In case you don't remember why Rep. Mark Souder needs to be booted this November, here's a sterling example of his feel-good personality at work from last December.
Rep. Mark Souder, as open about his religious convictions as Pence is, voted for the Christmas resolution and "present" on the Ramadan statement, one of 41 Republicans and a single Democrat to stand apart from the yes/no voting on Ramadan.
Souder's reasoning, however, goes to his views on Islam and his objection to Congress declaring Islam as "great."
He said he didn't think he had grounds to vote "no," but "I'm unhappy that (President) Bush says we all serve the same God. I don't agree with that. We have freedom to worship. We have freedom of expression. But that does not mean every religion is equal and good and right.
"Fundamentally, it's wrong," Souder said of Islam because part of the Quran refers to killing infidels. "I find their religion offensive."
I find Mark Souder and his idiotic, ignorant views offensive.
Donate to Mike Montagano today, and help keep his message of change on the air. The 3rd District deserves better than this.
So far, I would have to say that I like Congressman Baron Hill's television spots the best out of those on the air, but Montagano has his fourth up and running, and yesterday's polling shows that people are paying attention. This is the first contrast advertisement we've seen from Montagano, so I'll be interested to see what reaction it gets within the district.
I just got my hands on some polling in the 3rd CD, and boy does it show some bad news for Republican Rep. Mark Souder. The head-to-head numbers reveal that there is still work to be done -- Souder's lead has been cut in half from the last poll taken -- but there is no denying that Montagano's television ads are getting his message out, and voters are liking what they hear.
Cooper and Secrest 504 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4.4% Sept. 9-10
50% Mark Souder (R) 37% Mike Montagano (D) 13% Undecided
Those numbers are encouraging, but digging a little deeper into the data reveals some big problems for Souder and his Republican brand.
Only 30% of the electorate consider themselves "strong Souder voters."
Mike Montagano has increased his name ID from 16% to 59%, and of voters who recognize both candidates, Montagano leads Souder by a 47% to 41% margin.
Of voters who have seen Montagano's television advertisements, he leads 47% to 37%.
Montagano leads Souder among Independent voters by an 8-point margin.
Souder's job performance is still sub-fifty, and 44% have a negative opinion of him as the district's representation in Congress.
Be sure to give Mike some coin, and help him keep his ads in front of the 3rd CD voters. This is a winnable race, and Obama's GOTV effort in the district will undoubtedly be giving a big hand to Mike as he moves forward with his campaign. Oh, and be sure to check out the Montagano for Congress site if you haven't already.
Does this remind anyone else of another television spot from a recent congressional hopeful?
For those keeping score at home, Montagano beat Souder to the punch in terms of getting on the air. And with rumors of increased DCCC interest running rampant, Democrats in the fightin' 3rd CD should be feeling pretty good about their chances to take out Mark Souder.
The campaign of Mike Montagano jumped on to the national radar screen when the DCCC added him to their "emerging races" list last month, and the buzz has continued to build ever since. I forgot to point out that Roll Call featured the 3rd District match-up last week, making note that in this solidly Republican district, Montagano is doing all the right things to take advantage of the problems a Bush-loving guy like Mark Souder face this year.
Enter Attorney Mike Montagano (D), this year's challenger, who had more money in the bank than Souder at the end of June.
At the tender age of 27, Montagano impressed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee enough to put Indiana's 3rd district on its list of "emerging" races to watch. Souder is quick to point out that his 2006 opponent, longtime Fort Wayne City Councilmember Thomas Hayhurst, was also on the DCCC's emerging races list and lost by 8 points.
But both Montagano and Souder acknowledge that what's different this year is that the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), is playing in Indiana and the district's former Congresswoman, Jill Long Thompson, is the Democratic nominee in a competitive gubernatorial race.
Montagano said his internal polling shows Long Thompson well ahead of Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) in the 3rd district. The northeastern Indiana district was also one of only two districts in the state that Obama won over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in the May 6 Democratic presidential primary.
The rest of the article is subscription only, but the main point made is that Montagano turned a lot of heads by out-raising Souder in the last fundraising quarter.
For those interested, the campaign is now sporting "I Like Mike" t-shirts. Check it out.
As I said yesterday, the big surprise to come out of the second quarter campaign finance reports -- other than Mike Sodrel's growing irrelevancy in the 9th District -- was Democratic challenger Mike Montagano in the Fightin' Third District. He outraised incumbent Mark Souder, turning heads far beyond the borders of the Hoosier state.
Sylvia A. Smith of the Journal Gazettechimes in this morning on the subject.
As the election season cranks up, Montagano's campaign has $28,000 more on hand than Souder, making him one of the few candidates in the country with a healthier campaign bank account than the incumbent.
[...]
Souder, 57, won re-election in 2006 with 54 percent of the vote, which is considered in political circles evidence that the incumbent is not on solid political footing. He has said he ramped up his fundraising effort earlier during this two-year cycle.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democratic House members, recently added Montagano to its list of up-and-comers. He and 19 other candidates trying to unseat a GOP opponent are on the committee's third tier of candidates, behind Democrats in seats where no incumbent is running and Democrats the committee thinks have a good chance of beating a Republican officeholder.
This is one of the most solidly Republican districts in the country, and Mark Souder can't raise a dime to save his life. Montagano, on the other hand, is turning an otherwise lost cause into a must-watch race.
With national observers such as Charlie Cook moving this district into ever more competitive territory, it's becoming increasingly lear that this seat is definitely in play.
In 2006, Rep. Mark Souder faced a surprisingly strong challenge from Tom Hayhurst in the 3rd District, forcing the NRCC to spend hundreds of thousands to defend a seat that by all accounts should be safe Republican territory. This year, Democratic challenger Michael Montagano has been quietly building an infrastructure and warchest, and his efforts are garnering national attention.
Yesterday saw the DCCC release their latest "Red to Blue" targeted races, and our own Mike Montagano was identified as an "emerging race" in what will likely be another landslide year for Democrats nationally.
Reflecting Democrats' expanding playing field this cycle, there are now 37 candidates on the Red to Blue program. The Red to Blue program highlights top Democratic campaigns across the country and offers them financial, communications, and strategic support. The program will introduce Democratic supporters to new, competitive candidates in order to help expand the fundraising base for these campaigns.
Red to Blue was a proven success in the 2006 cycle. In 2006, the Red to Blue program raised nearly $22.6 million for 56 campaigns with an average of $404,000 per campaign. Red to Blue was also responsible for solidifying the structure of dozens of campaigns and making a real difference for Democrats across America.
The DCCC also announced 20 emerging races. In each of these races, Democratic candidates have generated excitement in their districts for their campaigns for change.
Congrats to Mike and the gang, and be sure to head over and throw him some coinage if you have any to spare.
Primary season has officially ended, and the first round of benchmark polling numbers are starting to trickle in from around the state.
In the 3rd District, Rep. Mark Souder is coming off of a surprisingly competitive 2006 race that forced the NRCC to spend hundreds of thousands on a district that went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004. This year, Democratic challenger Mike Montagano has been raising money and building an infrastructure, and the initial polling shows that Souder is definitely vulnerable.
From our friends over at the Swing State Project we get the head-to-head numbers, but the big mention of the moment is on WashPo politico Chris Cillizza's blog, The Fix:
Alan Secrest, a well-regarded Democratic pollster, sent two polls The Fix's way late last week surveying House districts --Indiana's 3rd and Ohio's 7th -- that are on almost no one's radar screen at the moment. In Indiana's 3rd, Secrest's poll conducted for unknown Democrat Mike Montagano put Rep. Mark Souder's (R) job approval rating at a middling 46 percent positive/46 percent negative; and in a district President Bush won with 68 percent in 2004, Bush's job approval ratings now are disastrous -- 34 positive/65 negative.
SSP has added both IN-3 and IN-4 to their "races to watch" category.
Elsewhere, a new poll is out on the Indiana gubernatorial contest, and it shows that there is work to be done if Mitch Daniels is to be defeated in November. The approval rating numbers are questionable, as noted by both the Hoosier Political Report and Masson. Word on the street is that other recent polling shows a more competitive contest. The answer? Probably somewhere in between, but the fact that Daniels is still dumping big bucks into advertising sends a clear message that he and his campaign are worried about the lack of support they are seeing around the state.
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