The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza takes a look at the latest trend among Democratic candidates -- including our own Baron Hill -- and how targeting the Republican Party's anti-Social Security policies could open the door to a winning strategy for November.
At least a half-dozen Democratic House candidates as well as several Democratic Senators in tight re-election races have featured claims that the GOP wants to either privatize or eliminate the retirement plan entirely in new television ads, and party strategists promise there are far more commercials to come.
"When Leader John Boehner, Paul Ryan and House Republican leaders put privatizing Social Security and dismantling Medicare into their budget they drew a bright line: House Republicans fight for Wall Street, while Democrats fight for seniors who've worked hard and played by the rules," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee communications director Jen Crider.
A new ad from Indiana Rep. Baron Hill (D) is indicative of the tone and content of Democrats' attacks on Social Security.
Ultimately, the success or failure of this strategy will depend on how effectively Republican candidates can either distance themselves from the ideological watchdogs of their party or articulate a more nuanced position that hides the true motives of their legislative overlords.
On both fronts, Todd Young seems to be failing, and that means good things for Baron Hill.
Another great ad from the Hill campaign, as they continue to press their advantage against Todd "I refuse to talk about my hatred of Social Security" Young.
In case you were wondering, this television spot will be running more than the few times Young's fake TV campaign will.
Via Lesley Stedman Weidenbener, exciting stuff for a campaign that one would have been forgiven for thinking was on some sort of extended summer vacation:
Republican Todd Young on Monday launched his first general election ad in his bid to unseat Democrat U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, criticizing the incumbent's votes for a health-care law and energy legislation.
Young ran several commercials during the four-way GOP primary last spring. But his new 30-second ad - which will begin running Monday night on cable stations throughout the 9th District - is his first since May.
The ad features Young, an attorney who lives in Bloomington, talking straight to the camera. But the message focuses more on Hill's actions in Congress than it does on Young's background or qualifications.
Wait, Todd Young doesn't want to talk about his apparently-non-existent policy positions in this election?
Shocking.
More shocking, perhaps, is the fact that friend-of-the-site Lesley Stedman Weidenbener (and her other media cohorts) fail to mention the most important thing about Todd Young's advertising campaign: it doesn't exist.
Word on the street is that Young's total ad buy was... wait for it ...four thousand dollars in cable spots.
He might as well have stood out on a corner shouting for a few hours.
Considering the unwarranted flak that the Ellsworth campaign received for their one-hundred thousand dollar ad buy earlier this cycle, I can only imagine the media will be quick to call Young on his stunt. Meanwhile, Baron Hill is still up, and still going strong.
The assault continues. If I am a Ninth District Republican, I'm about to slip into panic mode:
The Indiana Democratic Party launched a new website today, THEREALTODDYOUNG.COM. The new website reveals the truths behind the radical Republican candidate Todd Young and further illustrates just how out of touch Young is with traditional Hoosier values.
Party Chairman Dan Parker said the site was created after Young's continued failure to tell voters where he stands on the issues.
"Todd Young has spent his summer avoiding the issues," Parker said.
"Instead of telling people where he stands, Young has tried to distract the voters with scare tactics and Washington talking points. He has had two months to tell the voters where he stands on Social Security and still won't pledge to protect it from privatization. If he won't tell the voters where he stands, we will."
Personally, I hope this will be the first of a series of pretty hard-hitting attacks on Todd Young. My sense is that the Democratic leadership smell blood in the water, and realize that if they can keep Todd Young on his back heels through November -- as they have for the last three months, really -- they stand more than a decent chance.
At the end of the day, we're talking about a guy who apparently hasn't had consistent employment since he left the military years ago, and yet who by most accounts lives in a $650k house here in Bloomington. Family money funding a carpetbagging campaign headquartered in the People's Republic of Indiana University isn't exactly a recipe for success in the Fightin' Ninth.
And I say that as a card-carrying member of said People's Republic.
Just because it's from my hometown news-gathering partner, here's an update from Baron Hill's six-million mile march from one end of the Fightin' Ninth to the other:
...but you can't take the Carmel cash out of the candidate.
Or, if nothing else, you can't keep Ninth District challenger Todd Young from heading back home when the going gets tough.
To use a metaphor more familiar with my demographic, just imagine the kid who moves to Bloomington and realizes he's run out of cash -- back to Mom and Dad's place!
Mark your calendars and stock up on popcorn now, 'cause Southern Indiana's Finest will be facing off against the Kid from Carmel at least twice in the month of October. The details:
U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, D-Ind., and Republican challenger Todd Young will debate in Bloomington five days after debating in Jasper.
The 9th Congressional District candidates and Libertarian Greg Knott will debate Oct. 18 in Buskirk-Chumley Theater, on Kirkwood Avenue in Bloomington. A time has not been set yet, said Debbie O'Leary, a public relations consultant for Indiana University.
Hill and Young are debating in the Jasper Arts Center auditorium at 7 p.m. Oct. 13.
As my main man Jim Shella notes, the first time Baron Hill arrived on most Hoosiers' radar screens was during his ultimately unsuccessful Senate campaign in which he famously walked the length of the state, ending his journey with a dip in Lake Michigan.
Great stuff.
Well, get ready for Baron's Walk-a-Thon, part deux:
Baron Hill announced today that he will spend the August recess talking to voters while walking through the 9th District. Hill will walk with volunteers, community leaders and small business owners as he travels throughout Southern Indiana. Hill will start his walk this Monday in Seymour as he heads towards Columbus.
"One of the most important things a Member of Congress can do is get in touch with voters," Hill said. "The great thing about this walk is that it will let me walk through communities and neighborhoods and talk to voters about what is happening in Southern Indiana and what we can do to help."
Hill will be walking through the district almost every day during the recess in order to meet face to face with as many voters as possible. Hill will walk hundreds of miles through each of the 20 counties in the Ninth District. Voters can track his progress on Hill's campaign Facebook and Twitter accounts (http://facebook.com/hoosiersforhill and http://twitter.com/Baron_Hill).
I love this strategy. Not only does it get Baron out and about during the August recess, but it also exposes an inconvenient truth about the Young campaign: Theodore knows more about Hamilton County than he does Orange County.
As the back-and-forth continues over debate scheduling in the Ninth District race, this one-off comment from Republican candidate Todd Young caught my eye:
"I don't think there's ever been a press inquiry we haven't responded to, or a question we haven't responded to," Young said.
Wait...what?
A brief look at just one of the major issues in this campaign -- Social Security reform -- provides numerous examples of Young refusing to respond to requests for a policy position. To wit:
In a written response, Young (left) dismissed Hill's [Social Security] pledge challenge as a campaign tactic and said Hill has yet to formulate any new ideas to insure the program's solvency.
Hill has questioned why Young will not say whether he supports that plan.
Young's campaign manager, Ryan Burchfield, said Tuesday that The Roadmap for America's Future is under study by the campaign.
Todd Young has literally made perfecting the political non-answer the backbone of his campaign. The closest he has come to breaking out of his carefully-crafted Washington talking points is to say he's going to take a look at someone else's idea for how to "fix" Social Security.
I don't think I've made it any secret that Brian Sikma is one of my least favorite Hoosier Access contributers. I rarely -- if ever -- find anything he pens to be all that reasonable, based in fact, or more than a warmed-over amalgam of what national far-right commentators said a few weeks ago.
Lo and behold, nothing seems to have changed.
Yesterday, Sikma pronounced definitively that the Ninth District race can be summarized as such: "Hill Losing Ground" -- scary, right?
Let's take a look at the evidence presented, which was separated into two parts:
Money -- In this section, the logic seems to be that Young's narrow fundraising advantage in the last quarter equals victory. I can think over over a million reasons why that is wrong. (See, e.g., Baron Hill's cash on hand advantage.)
Couple this with the fact that name identification is key to this very, very expensive district, plus that Young has been completely MIA since the primary, and no rational person can see how the state of finances in this contest is anything other than a huge advantage to Hill.
Endorsements -- This section is even more absurd. I kid you not, this is the bottom line as presented by our smartly dressed boy wonder: Todd Young has been endorsed by his own party's campaign arm and Mike Pence, whereas Baron Hill only had Vice President Joe Biden come to town.
Uh, right.
It's worth noting that Young just recently made the NRCC list -- his inability to win the primary with more than 40% of the vote or coalesce support earlier made him a late, late addition. Plus, Young hasn't exactly endeared himself to the local press, what with his lack of reportable policy positions as of late. My prediction is that November brings a notable newspaper endorsement advantage to Hill.
(Of course, this isn't all Young's fault. Baron has been around these newspapers for his entire life; Todd has only been in the district a few years.)
Finally, as if the money advantage wasn't enough, Hill recently found out that he'll once again be on the receiving end of television air support from the DCCC. With resources tight for both parties, the D-trip wouldn't be committing this early unless they thought they could put this thing away by burying Young under his own stagnant silence.
Last we heard from our Carmel-based Republican friend, ol' Young was hiding out in some undisclosed location while his Washington consultants airdropped stale national talking points into Southern Indiana in hopes of diverting attention away from Todd's decidedly lackluster post-primary performance.
It appears the more things change, the more they stay the same.
In classic D.C. fashion, the Young campaign's response to Congressman Baron Hill's reasonable request for their policy position on Wall Street reform was to release a statement on the subject... DIVERT ATTENTION QUICKLY! BARACKOBAMAPELOSIOHMYGOD!
In a statement, Young labeled the federal stimulus package as a dangerous waste of money.
"The stimulus didn't fuel the recovery. It didn't create jobs. And it didn't curb unemployment," said Young, who is running against Hill and Libertarian candidate Greg Knott for Indiana's 9th District U.S. House seat.
[...]
Young credited state government - which is headed by Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels - for implementing a low tax, small government agenda.
Just so we're clear, the position of the Todd Young campaign is that the national economic collapse that began while George W. Bush was president is Barack Obama's fault, and especially Baron Hill's fault. But that same economic collapse that began in earnest here in Indiana under Governor Mitch Daniels is somehow a badge of honor for the Guv and his crew.
In other news, down is now up, and two plus two does in fact equal five.
Yet again, this is the problem with taking talking points from Washington and trying to run a Southern Indiana campaign -- things just don't add up once you start trying to apply their national viewpoints to one specific corner of the Hoosier State.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, Libertarian candidate responded to Hill's request for a debate on financial reform. As with the conversation about Social Security, Todd Young and his top-dollar consultants are staying silent.
Another hard hitting release out of the Baron Hill camp, wherein the Good Congressman calls on his opponent* to come clean with their position on the recent passage of landmark financial regulation legislation. To wit:
"I voted against the banking bailout - twice," Hill said. "I was proud to support this legislation because it will prevent future bailouts while also reigning in Wall Street."
Hill made the challenge as Republicans in Washington stated their desire to see the reform bill repealed. Minority leader John Boehner made such a statement last week and the bill passed with little bipartisan support.
* Note: I say "opponent" above because Libertarian candidate Greg Knott appears to be the only alternative to Hill who is willing to go on the record with a policy position about anything. Until Carmel-native Todd Young comes out from hiding under the desks of his Washington consultants, I don't think he's really earned a spot in the debate.
Over the weekend, Maureen Groppe penned a piece for the Star taking a look at the fundraising races taking place across Indiana in competitive congressional contests. Her take can be summarized as such:
Democrats have the cash advantage in each of the three House districts in Indiana that Republicans hope to seize this fall.
But the gap could narrow, and cash isn't always enough when you're facing powerful political headwinds.
The article cites the election of now-Reps. Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly in 2006 despite being outspent by their respective opponents.
What's important to note, though, is that at least in the case of Hill, he didn't need to spend as much because his name identification was already very high throughout the district -- he had, after all, already been elected in the Fightin' Ninth before.
And that's the biggest problem facing our Carmel-based friend Todd Young: it costs a lot of money to boost name recognition in Southern Indiana. There's a reason the GOP ran a guy named "Millionaire Mike" for all of those years.
In some ways, though, the Todd Young campaign strategy may see this as a feature, not a bug. Anti-establishment year or not, this part of the state is much more likely to support 'Generic Republican' this year than they are a Carmel native who has only lived in the district -- and Bloomington, at that -- for a few years.
Oh, Theodore. All of those Hamilton County Republican Party meetings appear to have muddled your head.
To recap, Ninth-District-by-way-of-the-Fifth-District Republican challenger Todd Young has been in hot water as of late over his (complete lack of a) stance on Social Security. And after weeks of bad press, he's had enough -- enter Obama bashing, stage far-right.
In a telephone interview from his New Albany campaign office at 3122 Blackiston Mill Road, Young said Hill needed to explain his [federal stimulus funding] vote with the jobless rate in Indiana still hovering around 10 percent.
"I predict this is the last thing [Hill] is going to want to talk about, but it's the big issue that voters care about," Young said.
The issue with this line of attack, of course, is that Baron Hill is more than willing to talk about the jobs that federal funds have created in the Ninth District. He even has -- gasp! -- facts.
Daniel Altman, communications director for the Hill campaign, responded to Young's remarks by saying cities and towns across the 9th District including Georgetown, Seymour, Jeffersonville and Marengo are benefiting from the stimulus.
The new wastewater treatment facility being constructed for Georgetown was spurred by stimulus dollars.
"Todd Young needs to check his facts," Altman wrote in an e-mail.
Young's problem is simple: he's running a national narrative campaign in a local narrative race. He has air-dropped press releases from Washington, consultants from Virginia, and a stale message that sounds like it was written for GENERIC REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE X, not a Southern Indiana campaign.
For the same reason that the Ninth District cares about what Social Security means for them, they care about the job situation at home first and foremost. Maybe if Young had a few more years under his belt actually living in Southern Indiana, he'd know that by now.
Someone needs to tell Carmel-based Republican challenger Todd Young that less may in fact be more, but there are limits to everything. And when the long-shot Ninth District congressional candidates -- some of whom aren't even on the ballot -- start to earn more ink than you on a critical topic on the campaign trail, perhaps it's time to come out of hiding.
"He apparently has decided that his best strategy on Social Security is to simply say nothing," Hill said. "The voters of the 9th Congressional District deserve better. They deserve a congressman that will be up front with them instead of ducking questions."
Those words sparked a series of responses from Hill's opponents. All four candidates battling for Indiana's 9th District seat spoke with The Tribune in phone interviews Tuesday.
Libertarian candidate Greg Knott said Social Security is not what Hill described, but he also said it's not a Ponzi scheme.
"I don't think Social Security fits that definition," Knott said. "It is a rip-off."
"That's an irresponsible statement," Hill said of Young's remarks in a phone interview. "To say that is the same old political rhetoric. It scares senior citizens."
Notice what happened there. The story leads off with Congressman Hill stating his position on Social Security, segues to his Libertarian opponent... and then back to Hill, for lack of anything from Todd Young.
But hey, getting upstaged by a Libertarian challenger isn't the worst thing in the world. They're principled and all.
Wait, what? A write-in candidate?
Write-in candidate Jerry Lucas of Jennings County agrees with Young's decription of Social Security as a Ponzi scheme.
[...]
Lucas says steps must be taken to ensure those who are filing for Social Security claims are entitled to them.
"We're going to have to clean it out," Lucas said. "There's no such thing as solvent Social Security. It has become a cash hole."
...
And the response from the Young "campaign" was limited to this:
"Right now we're looking at the Paul Ryan plan," Burchfield said. "The thing that Todd wants to have done is verification that the plan's numbers can make Social Security solvent. If we can verify that they are good numbers and that the last-ditch effort to make this plan work is raising taxes, then he (Young) could sign on.
Well, that and some boilerplate references to tax increases and liberalism.
This is getting ugly, folks. What do you call amateur hour when it lasts for weeks?
Congressman Baron Hill is still on the offensive, pressuring this Carmel-based opponent to own up to his position -- any position at this point would do -- on Social Security. Hill held a press conference yesterday where he dismissed Republican efforts to privatize the program:
The 9th District Democrat is responding to a proposal from Republican Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin that would allow workers to invest their Social Security taxes through individual accounts.
During a stop in New Albany, Hill said the plan is too risky and he's signed a pledge that he won't support it. He has also been calling on his Republican opponent in the November election, Todd Young, to do the same.
"It does need to be fixed," Hill said. "There are some unfunded liabailities. But it's not a Ponzi scheme like my opponent has said. Social Security is a sacred trust between the federal government and senior citizens. It should not be trivialized as a Ponzi scheme."
Todd Young, for his part, released yet another trivial written release knocking Baron Hill for -- get this -- not having a position on Social Security reform.
When it comes to the success or failure of a political campaign, there's casual ineptitude when it comes to managing an effort, and then there's professional idiocy.
Ninth District Republican challenger (and Carmel native) Todd Young is no amateur, folks.
As if coming out vaguely in favor of privatizing Social Security wasn't bad enough, Young followed that train wreck by calling Social Security a "Ponzi scheme" and dismissing its role for hundreds of thousands of Hoosiers.
But wait, there's more!
In the aftermath of all this, Young has proceeded to completely ignore any and all requests to clarify his position on the subject. Nada. Zilch. The ol' goose egg.
All of which has provided Congressman Baron Hill the opening he needed to reveal the complete lack of substance behind Young's country-club-Republican-meets-Tea-Party bid for office. Via Dan Suddeath in the News and Tribune, the latest:
Democrat and incumbent Rep. Baron Hill criticized Republican challenger Todd Young on Wednesday for not signing a pledge to protect Social Security from privatization - a move that Hill made last month.
"My opponent's lack of comment is disturbing," Hill said. "He apparently has decided that his best strategy on Social Security is to simply say nothing."
Hill again brought up a video posted on the website www.youtube.com last month where Young refers to Social Security as "a Ponzi scheme" while addressing a crowd of supporters at a town hall meeting.
"Republicans in Washington have declared war on Social Security," Hill said. "Given the fact that my opponent was recently endorsed by D.C. Republicans and his statement that Social Security is a 'Ponzi scheme,' he seems to have the exact same agenda."
For any other campaign, this sort of story would probably be the last straw that spurred an otherwise sleepy operation into action. Not Todd Young, though -- policy positions are for those libruls out in Washington!
While he didn't mention his view on Social Security, Young responded to Hill's statement by questioning his allegiance to President Barack Obama.
Via Dan Suddeath of the News and Tribune, a glimpse at why the politically tumultuous passage of health care reform should (and I believe will) provide dividends for Democrats for years to come.
Americans denied health coverage due to pre-existing medical conditions have a new avenue for obtaining insurance.
Through the Affordable Care Act, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has established a transitional plan that will last until 2014, when insurance companies will be prohibited from excluding adults with pre-existing conditions. The federal health care reform package earmarked $5 billion for the measure, known as the Pre-existing Condition Insurance Plan, or PCIP.
To qualify, a person must have been uninsured for at least six months and been denied coverage due to a health condition. Only U.S. citizens or those residing in the country legally can apply for the plan.
Although national political prognosticators were quick to signal doom and gloom for moderate Democrats in contested districts in the immediate aftermath of the health care votes, I think it's worth noting that for Indiana Democrats, the "selling" of this reform package consists mainly of explaining what the bill does (or doesn't) do for Hoosiers.
And for someone like Congressman Baron Hill, who represents an area of the state with tens of thousands of uninsured families, announcements like these go a long way to showing why his vote was the right vote.
Rep. Baron Hill, D-Ind., voted in favor of the health care reform package in Congress and lauded the "quick deployment" of the PCIP.
"This is welcome news to so many Southern Indiana residents who have been unfairly unable to secure affordable coverage because they have a pre-existing condition," he said.
Hill's opponent, Carmel-native Todd Young, didn't offer a comment for the story, presumably because he doesn't actually have anything to offer to the discussion. He certainly can't say he opposes offering health insurance to Southern Indiana, and he definitely hasn't shown an interest in sharing any unique ideas of his own.
So, for now, the guy sits in silence, wondering what he's going to do in November if shouting "Repeal!" at the top of his lungs over and over again doesn't prove to be the political goldmine he once thought it was.
Everyone's favorite Vice President just recently concluded his remarks in Jeffersonville on behalf of Congressman Baron Hill, and reports indicate it was a big success for all parties involved. From the Courier-Journalstory:
Biden praised Hill for being a no-nonsense political leader who focuses on controlling budget deficits while supporting the creation of jobs.
As for the economic problems the nation is facing, Biden said, "I can promise you that it's going to be OK. Indiana is coming back. The nation is coming back, and Baron Hill is going back" to Washington.
Biden spoke for about 20 minutes before some 200 people who attended the fundraiser. Hill also spoke to the gathering, along with Rep. John Yarmuth of Louisville.
Hill's opponent, Todd Young of Carmel fame, was supposedly outside the event protesting with Tea Partiers. Methinks his frustration may stem more from the fact that his own national party won't give him the time of day after his lackluster sub-40% primary showing.
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