While most eyes in the state have been acutely focused on Senatefest 2010, State Rep. Trent Van Haaften has been quietly assembling a team for his planned congressional bid in the 8th Congressional District.
As Eric Bradner of the Courier & Pressexamined, Van Haaften has a reputation among his fellow legislators that may go a long way toward making the case that he is the right person to replace the exiting Brad Ellsworth.
But as he leaves behind a Statehouse in which his star was on the rise among Democratic leaders, the question is, will such a campaign resonate?
The House Public Policy Committee, which Van Haaften chairs, is assigned bills related to the regulation of drugs, gambling and alcohol, as well as crime and sentencing. He won praise from fellow committee members for his handling of those issues.
"I think Trent's been a phenomenal committee chairman," said Rep. Matt Bell of Avilla, the top-ranking Republican on the committee.
Bell said on that legislative panel, "we are able to work in a bipartisan fashion. These are not issues that fall on party lines. And he's promoted that culture of exchange."
I'm not aware of a campaign website for the Van Haaften effort, but I'll let y'all know as soon as one is launched.
The latest, via all-around good guy Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post.
Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth has decided to seek the seat being vacated by Sen. Evan Bayh and will announce his intentions in a statement to be released shortly, according to a source briefed on the matter.
Ellsworth emerged as the favored candidate of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the White House in the immediate aftermath of Bayh's stunning decision that he would not seek a third term.
Handsome, telegenic and with the sort of voting record during his two terms in the House that makes him a viable statewide candidate in conservative-minded Indiana, Ellsworth is rightly seen as a recruiting coup for a DSCC that was caught off guard by Bayh's decision (as was the rest of the Democratic political world) and had been badly bruised and battered by retirements and the special election victory of Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in recent weeks.
If friend-of-the-site Brian Howey is to be believed, rumored senate contender Congressman Brad Ellsworth is set to throw his hat into the ring later today, setting up a congressional run by State Rep. Trent Van Haaften.
Informed and reliable sources are telling Howey Politics Indiana that U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth will likely declare his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat today, and that State Rep. Trent Van Haaften of Mount Vernon is preparing to file for the 8th CD in Ellsworth's place. St. Joseph County Democratic Chairman Butch Morgan told HPI, "If he makes his final decsion to do it shortly, there will be some things he'll need to do and others will need to do as far as filing for Congress. I think he'll withdraw from runing for Congress and another person will file." Asked if it had to happen by noon Friday, as HPI reported on Wednesday, Morgan said, "I think so." He identified Van Haaften as the likely successor to Ellsworth.
It appears we'll know sooner rather than later if at least one rumored Senate candidate is going to take the plunge. Eighth District Congressman Brad Ellsworth says he'll have an answer within a week.
Ellsworth said Tuesday he expects to decide within about a week whether to actively seek the nomination.
"I don't want to hold it to exactly a week, but I wouldn't think that kind of stuff takes much longer than that, and I know that (Indiana Democrats) are going to want to find somebody to get busy running," said Ellsworth, who is in his second two-year term in Congress.
Speaking outside the Sullivan County Courthouse after a meeting with constituents, Ellsworth said he had taken several calls from Indiana Democratic leaders since Bayh announced on Monday he would not seek another term.
If either Hill or Ellsworth throws their hat into the ring, expect the discussion to quickly turn to possible replacements for both on the November ballot.
Mike Sodrel, he of four-time loss fame, has done it again, and thus we are almost undoubtedly assured of at least five or six months of campaign trail wackiness from that second-most famous 'stache in the state.
(For what it's worth, Shella's got him beat by a landslide.)
What I find most interesting about this latest bout with delusions of grandeur is just how little fanfare has accompanied the announcement. Aside from some conservative bloggers and a few brief local and AP blurbs, Sodrel's entry into the race has been greeted with a decidedly muted reaction for a candidate who for the last few months has been heralded as a game-changer by his party's faithful.
More than anything, Sodrel's hat-tossing is indicative of a decidedly down year for candidate recruitment at the congressional level here in the state. Granted, the field may not be as bleak as last year's chuckle-fest, but we're talking about slim pickings at best. A quick recap:
2nd District: Wacky Jackie Walorski announces a bid, which will no doubt be fueled by the fringe elements that have held her aloft for years.
8th District: A bottom-of-the-barrel self-funding doctor and a motorcycle blogger round out the current crop in a district that seems to fall more in love with Congressman Brad Ellsworth every year.
9th District: Travis Whatshisface spent the summer spending every penny he brought in on pizza for his interns, Todd Young has tried so hard that you almost feel bad for how little people seem to like him, and Mike Sodrel has become a perennial punchline. Not exactly overwhelming.
If anything, the current GOP crop seems more geared toward softening the beachhead for the first post-redistricting cycle, as most of the candidates are doing little to indicate they'll have the institutional or grassroots support to raise much of a ruckus.
Don't misunderstand me: we're going to have to fight like hell to keep these seats. But the reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated.
To describe Congressman Brad Ellsworth as a "vulnerable" incumbent is more than a stretch, which may cast doubt on the legitimacy of the National Republican Congressional Committee's list of 70 targeted races for next year.
Republicans hope an improved national political environment will help them contest many of the seats it recently lost. Of the 70 targets, 45 are freshmen and sophomores elected in the 2006 and 2008 wave elections.
House Republicans also appear confident that difficult votes on health care and energy legislation will put battle-tested members from conservative districts in trouble. There are over a dozen Blue Dog Democrats on the list, including those who have coasted to re-election in recent years.
Congressman Baron Hill is the other Hoosier on the list, although he enjoys a huge cash advantage over both his potential opponents. Todd Young, the presumptive front-runner for the GOP nod, has racked up a fair number of endorsements, but has as of yet failed to excite Republican fundraisers.
Joe Donnelly, for his part, was left off the list entirely, apparently off the radar screen after two strong showings at the ballot box.
Bainbridge Republican Dan Stockton has tossed his hat into the ring early to challenge incumbent Democrat Brad Ellsworth for the 8th U.S. Congressional District seat.
[...]
A news release said Stockton currently works in the automotive manufacturing industry and is active in his local community theater "as well as heavily involved in motorcycle rights."
The release said he writes a column in "The Hoosier Motorcyclist," is a regular blogger for the newspaper in Greencastle and he has "been recognized for his contributions to journalism and for his service to the community as he is actively involved in supporting local charities."
I find it hard to believe the GOP doesn't find someone with a bit more credibility to take one for the team, but Mr. Stockton will certainly do if they come up empty.
It looks as if our days of being a political backwater are behind us, as President Barack Obama has announced he will make his first fundraising trip to the Hoosier State next month on behalf of four quality Indiana Democrats.
President Obama plans to cap his cap-and-gown commencement address at the University of Notre Dame later this month with an Indianapolis fundraising event for four Indiana House Democrats, according to the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette's Sylvia Smith.
The president, with his sky-high approval ratings, could hardly be a better draw right now.
[...]
Among the four, only Carson's Indianapolis-based 7th District is a Democratic stronghold. Even as Obama in 2008 became the first Democrat to carry Indiana for president since 1964, Ellsworth's 8th District and Hill's 9th leaned to Republican John McCain, though by much smaller margins that those usually enjoyed by GOP presidential nominees.
Between this and the rumors that President Bill Clinton is likely to pop up in the state as well during May, it looks as if Indiana will stay on the national radar for at least a little while.
It's never too early to start pontificating on the next election cycle, especially if you make your money, uh, pontificating on the next election cycle. And thus, with little fanfare, the Cook Political Report released their initial race ratings for the 2010 cycle. Indiana is, at least at the moment, a real snoozer.
IN-1 -- Solid D IN-2 -- Likely D IN-3 -- Likely R IN-4 -- Solid R IN-5 -- Solid R IN-6 -- Solid R IN-7 -- Solid D IN-8 -- Solid D IN-9 -- Likely D
The only real things of note here are that Brad Ellsworth is now recognized as beyond mere mortals in an Eighth District that he has quickly made his own, and Baron Hill has effectively consolidated his political strength in the historically tight Ninth District. Oh, and Mark Souder is a really, really lazy campaigner, but somehow keeps winning.
You may have heard that recently the United States of America elected Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama to serve as the nation's 44th Commander in Chief. After this historic victory, three words could be heard as a rallying cry, echoing from sea to shining sea: Who needs tickets?
Assuming you don't have $10 thousand to drop on a pair of inaugural address tickets, your best bet is to work with your congressman or senator to secure a seat. But as this morning's Courier & Pressnotes, you may have a lot of competition.
The Washington office of 8th District Congressman Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind., already has received about 1,000 requests from Hoosiers wanting tickets to attend President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration.
"There's a lot of interest," said Liz Farrar, spokeswoman for Ellsworth.
Farrar has received several group requests for up to 100 tickets. She doesn't know how many tickets Ellsworth's office will receive, but she encourages people who are interested in attending to also contact their senators.
I usually avoid beating up on the alma mater, but considering I've seen this point made a few times now, I figure it is worth a few thoughts. It seems that our future media overlords are no more astute than our current ones, which I suppose is to be expected. From the venerable Indiana Daily Student editorial board.
Surely the campaign for change must have done Rep. Baron Hill, D-9th, a lot of good. Locked in a perpetual contest with his Republican challenger - this was their fourth meeting - Hill finally scored the decisive victory he was looking for. Just four years after Mike Sodrel unseated Hill in 2004, Hill achieved a crushing victory with 58 percent of the vote.
The same could easily be muttered by casual political observers of the 2nd and 8th Congressional Districts, both of which were relatively closer in 2006. And they would be similarly incorrect.
The reason Baron Hill, Joe Donnelly, and Brad Ellsworth won so handily this year was not Barack Obama, but rather because they worked their asses off in Washington and back at home, running amazing campaigns from gate-to-gate. (There was a reason, after all, that the GOP couldn't find legitimate challengers willing to take a chance on these "Republican" districts.)
And while their positions on a few key issues were oft-maligned here and elsewhere, all have expressed a willingness to give a green light to the vast majority of President-elect Obama's legislative agenda.
There are benefits to a big tent, folks, and while it may not be palatable at the time, the pragmatic centrism of Indiana's Democratic delegation to the U.S. Congress may provide a blueprint for expanding our majorities in the Mountain West and elsewhere in the coming years. This isn't to say we can't provide pressure when necessary on points of contention, but there is something to be said for understanding the nature of Indiana's political landscape.
And quite frankly, I love crushing victories. The more the merrier, as far as I'm concerned.
Back by popular demand, I bring you this quarter's congressional fundraising totals from across the state.
Incumbent
Total Q3 Fundraising
Cash on Hand
Challenger
Total Q3 Fundraising
Cash on Hand
IN-1
Rep. Pete Visclosky
$63,335.00
$1,123,798.49
---
---
---
IN-2
Rep. Joe Donnelly
$142,887.86
$559,233.97
Luke Puckett
$53,708.39
$17,509.71
IN-3
Rep. Mark Souder
$216,987.38
$451,756.49
Mike Montagano
$152,485.49
$31,255.90
IN-4
Rep. Steve Buyer
$270,674.86
$806,324.83
Nels Ackerson
$128,782.53
$100,632.78
IN-5
Rep. Dan Burton
$199,774.70
$359,866.96
Mary Etta Ruley
TBA
TBA
IN-6
Rep. Mike Pence
$142,557.48
$417,601.56
Barry Welsh
$3,233.21
$9,380.03
IN-7
Rep. Andre Carson
$245,415.79
$186,951.99
Gabrielle Campo
$20,720
$11,836
IN-8
Rep. Brad Ellsworth
$267,651.31
$735,413.07
Greg Goode
$48,802.93
$43,860.25
IN-9
Rep. Baron Hill
$206,928.26
$684,909.30
Mike Sodrel
$177,387.86
$263,642.79
There's really nothing but good news for us in these numbers. Here are a few things of note:
The first thing you should notice is the absolutely piss-poor job the formerly-celebrated GOP challengers have done this cycle. Greg Goode and Luke Puckett (when he bothers to file reports) can't raise a dime to save their political lives, which were likely dead before those contests even started.
Congressman Baron Hill continues to kick ass in the 9th District, and Mike Sodrel posts another lackluster set of figures that will undoubtedly dishearten Republicans who were depending on Millionaire Mike to sustain his own effort. Keep fighting until the finish on this one, folks, but things are looking great right now.
Mike Montagano gave us another impressive effort in the 3rd District, and keep in mind when looking at his CoH number that he was able to spend out a lot more due to the dedicated funds he'll be receiving from the DCCC. We're right where we need to be in this contest.
Although the CoH figure will be a huge hurdle in the final weeks, kudos to Nels Ackerson in the 4th for outperforming any and all expectations for a Democrat in this decidedly difficult district. Great stuff.
Sylvia A. Smith has her finger on the pulse of our nation's capital, and this morning is no exception. It just so happens that the collective heart is beating for Brad Ellsworth.
An annual survey of Capitol Hill aides (anonymous, of course), rates lawmakers on qualities ranging from their work habits to their wardrobes and from their blowhard quotient to their intelligence quotient.
According to the sponsor of the survey, Washingtonian magazine, Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-8th, is the best-looking man in the House, coming in No. 1 in the "hunk" category. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., is considered the third hunkiest male senator behind Sens. John Thune, R-S.D., and Barack Obama, D-Ill.
Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., is among the five most diligent "workhorses."
Folks in the 6th CD can feel good that their guy made the list as well: Mike Pence was listed as one of the top showboats in an organization filled with showboats.
Congressman Brad Ellsworth talked with supporters at Sycamore Engineering in Terre Haute on Thursday afternoon.
He made three stops in the Wabash Valley to thank members of the National Rifle Association, Indiana Farm Bureau and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for their endorsements.
"They may not be traditionally of the endorsements Democrats in Congress get; The National Rifle Association, Indiana Farm Bureau, Chamber of Commerce. If I'm not mistaken I'm only one of two freshmen Democrats to receive the endorsements and I'm very proud of that."
(emphasis mine)
This race was over before it even started, but it never hurts to run up the score in a district like the Bloody Eighth. What odds will the gallery give me on Greg Whatshisname not breaking 40% come November?
More encouraging news from CQ Politics, with a lengthy piece that examines the great campaigns being run by the three Democratic congressmen who won their seats in 2006. Actually, this article could just as easily be characterized as a long, hard look at how ineffective the Republican challengers have been thus far.
Republican officials, not surprisingly, stated they were going to go right after those Democratic winners: Baron P. Hill , who reclaimed the southeastern 9th District seat he lost two years earlier to Republican Mike Sodrel; Joe Donnelly , who unseated two-term Republican Chris Chocola in the north-central 2nd; and Brad Ellsworth , who bumped Republican John Hostettler from the seat he had held for six terms in the southwestern 8th District. All of their districts have rural, conservative-leaning constituencies that often favor Republicans. All went strongly in 2004 for President Bush, who took 56 percent of the vote in the 2nd, 59 percent in the 9th and 62 percent in the 8th.
But the Republican strategists' reach in Indiana appears to have exceeded their grasp this year. Hill is the only one of the three 2006 Democratic takeover winners who is currently rated by CQ Politics as facing a highly competitive challenge, and he is the only one facing a rematch - a re-re-rematch, actually, as this is the fourth consecutive House election in the 9th District matching Hill against Sodrel. Hill rebuffed a challenge from Sodrel in 2002, lost to him in 2004, then won the seat back in 2006. CQ Politics rates this race as Leans Democratic.
It's important to remember that while the Hill-Sodrel match-up may be the most competitive race of the three, this is all relative. Sodrel's fundraising has been lackluster at best, and his campaign efforts thus far have been limited to over-glorified telegrams and a lot of his family's semi-trucks. Not exactly impressive.
In 2005, Exxon Mobil was asked by the Washington Post about their efforts to pressure lawmakers for the opening of ANWR to extensive drilling. Their response was that "lobbying on the refuge is done through a group called Arctic Power, of which the company is a member."
Fast-forward to today, and what do we find? Republican congressional challengers Luke Puckett, Greg Goode and Mike Sodrel traveling to Alaska as part of a political stunt organized by...you guessed it, Arctic Power.
Thus begging the question: Is the GOP plan really to achieve energy independence by taking their marching orders on policy from the oil industry?
Regardless of where you stand on the issue of whether or not we should drill in ANWR, is cozying up to a Washington lobbyist group really the best way to prove that you can bring about the change Hoosiers are looking for?
Oh, and while it is true that the candidates covered their personal expenses from the campaign coffers, the fact that Mike Sodrel has received over $70,000 from the oil and gas industry should not be glossed over by anyone.
And the goofiest part of this whole junket? Why, the candidates themselves. Take, for example, 2nd District candidate Luke Puckett, who could have been spotted a day or so ago swerving across lanes of traffic in northern Indiana on his way to Chicago. I couldn't make this stuff up if I wanted to.
Back by popular demand, here's your handy chart based on the latest campaign finance filings for our congressional contests.
Incumbent
2Q Fundraising
Cash on Hand
Challenger
2Q Fundraising
Cash on Hand
IN-1
Rep. Pete Visclosky
$212,045.00
$1,585,193.21
---
---
---
IN-2
Rep. Joe Donnelly
$248,481.82
$993,045.67
Luke Puckett
TBA
TBA
IN-3
Rep. Mark Souder
$89,873.46
$323,339.38
Mike Montagano
$141,407.00
$351,701.69
IN-4
Rep. Steve Buyer
$182,269.08
$628,854.91
Nels Ackerson
$87,989.00
$177,536.88
IN-5
Rep. Dan Burton
$128,176.69
$336,537.54
Mary Etta Ruley
TBA
TBA
IN-6
Rep. Mike Pence
$231,772.01
$739,104.21
Barry Welsh
$3,878.61
$8,093.40
IN-7
Rep. Andre Carson
$434,765.31
$82,934.89
---
---
---
IN-8
Rep. Brad Ellsworth
$168,173.79
$779,312.64
Greg Goode
$24,651.37
$9,029.45
IN-9
Rep. Baron Hill
$294,587.47
$1,160,436.64
Mike Sodrel
$193,349.05
$379,358.76
A few things of note:
The big surprise is obviously the strong showing of Mike Montagano in CD 3. Rep. Mark Souder continues to disappoint in his ability to muster a respectable warchest, and with Montagano showing a $30k CoH advantage heading into the summer, this race looks increasingly likely to jump from the DCCC's "emerging races" list to the big time.
If there were any people left who thought the "Bloody 8th" would make a reappearance this year, Greg Goode's numbers should put that to rest rather quickly.
Speaking of disappointment, it looks like Millionaire Mike Sodrel is having a hard time finding support for his Bush-loving brand this year. He pledged to not dip into his personal finances this cycle, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen based on this performance.
I'm still waiting on Luke Puckett's numbers, who apparently didn't get his report turned in on time. I'll update the chart when I can give you those figures.
(Interesting stuff. Bumped from the user diaries. - promoted by Thomas)
Indiana shocked the world in 2006, sending 3 GOP Congressmen back home to the state, and electing Democrats to replace them. When I wrote about the possibility of an Indiana landslide for the Democratic part in May of 2006, there was some skepticism. Being 2008, I think that it's time to start looking forward by looking back.
The question is why did Democrats win in Indiana in 2006?
The answer? "Bitter voters", the white working class folks who live in rural areas. There's been a backlash against the GOP from rural voters.
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