In CD 03, you need to keep your eye on the second challenger of U.S. Rep. Mark Souder (R) to the right, Fort Wayne and Indianapolis car dealer Bob Thomas (R). We're hearing that the former head of the national Ford dealers council, a Princeton and Harvard alum, has assembled an impressive cadre of handlers and is budgeting $500,000 to be spent between now and the first week in May.
That's a serious amount of coin, especially against a habitually bad fundraiser such as Souder. I'll be keeping an eye on this contest as it develops.
Kudos to Ed Feigenbaum for another great scoop. If you haven't considered a subscription to one of his great publications, you should do so today.
Rep. Mark Souder has always been a poor fundraiser, but to fall behind in the money race this early in the cycle has to be a bit worrying for GOPers in the northeast corner of this state.
Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show that on Dec. 31, Hayhurst's campaign had $170, 949 in cash, compared to Souder's $165,697.
Souder may have to spend some of his money in a primary fight. He faces opposition from Phil Troyer of Fort Wayne as well as two DeKalb County residents, Rachel Grubb of Auburn and Charles Newman of Garrett.
You can check out Dr. Tom Hayhurst's campaign at www.tomhayhurstforcongress.com. Head on over and help him keep his cash advantage.
From Sylvia A. Smith, we get this hilarious zinger from Rep. Mark Souder:
"So he turns on them. He goes, 'Well, they must be my enemy, then. It couldn't be possible that they would disagree with my policies. They must be my enemy.' The only person I've seen (like that) since I've been even moderately active in politics was Nixon.
Souder then noted that yes, in fact, he had been in a coma for the eight years preceding the election of President Barack Obama.
And just to keep things in perspective, this was after Souder said Obama pals around with terrorists and has abandoned free people all over the world who share American values.
In related news, Democratic challenger Tom Hayhurst raised nearly $100k in his first six weeks on the campaign trail, nearly equaling Souder's cash-on-hand total. Feel free to head over and drop Dr. Tom a dime or two.
Congressional goofball Mark Souder had the following to say about President Obama's most recent move to reform the ailing auto industry:
He also criticized Obama's move to ask GM's chief executive, Rick Wagoner, to step down.
Souder said Wagoner made mistakes, but he has a Harvard Business School degree and worked for decades in the industry.
Yes, because if there is one thing the last eight years of Republican-dominated government has taught us, it is that putting all of our faith in a Harvard MBA graduate is a great path to inescapable success.
It's never too early to start pontificating on the next election cycle, especially if you make your money, uh, pontificating on the next election cycle. And thus, with little fanfare, the Cook Political Report released their initial race ratings for the 2010 cycle. Indiana is, at least at the moment, a real snoozer.
IN-1 -- Solid D IN-2 -- Likely D IN-3 -- Likely R IN-4 -- Solid R IN-5 -- Solid R IN-6 -- Solid R IN-7 -- Solid D IN-8 -- Solid D IN-9 -- Likely D
The only real things of note here are that Brad Ellsworth is now recognized as beyond mere mortals in an Eighth District that he has quickly made his own, and Baron Hill has effectively consolidated his political strength in the historically tight Ninth District. Oh, and Mark Souder is a really, really lazy campaigner, but somehow keeps winning.
While communicative genius Mike Pence runs around with his warmed-over John Birch Society talking points, it turns out that the adults in the room have decided to lead by example.
A week after he was sworn in, Obama arrived Tuesday on Capitol Hill to meet privately with all Republicans in Congress.
"I assumed we'd be just pictures on the wall," said Souder, R-3rd. "But he really engaged. ... He showed us he was willing to do a give-and-take."
It's nearly unprecedented for the president of one political party to meet with the entire caucus of lawmakers from the other party, and Republicans said they were grateful for the gesture.
Pence, R-6th, chairman of the GOP House conference and host of the hourlong meeting, said he told Obama, "the door of this conference will stay open to the president."
And yet, something tells me that they won't remember any of this the next time a television camera is rolling and the all-talk socialist rhetoric starts flowing.
Indiana's Third Congressional District has been blessed (cursed?) with a seemingly endless supply of nonsensical thoughts, courtesy of ol' Mark Souder.
Rep. Mark Souder, R-3rd, noted that Obama's speech offered "no red meat" for liberal activists because he didn't mention abortion, gay rights, guns or the war.
Souder said that as a result, "he never really got the crowd worked up," but it also signaled Obama's intention to work with Republicans.
The swearing in of President Barack Obama was the red meat, you idiot. And two million Americans seemed more than worked up after standing hours in the frigid cold of January.
How in the world did I miss this hilarious mess? With a tip of the ol' hat to Pharyngula, and courtesy of Sylvia A. Smith of the Journal Gazette, may I present Mark Souder:
I personally believe that there is no issue more important to our society than intelligent design. I believe that if there wasn't a purpose in designing you - regardless of who you view the designer as being - then, from my perspective, you can't be fallen from that design. If you can't be fallen from that design, there's no point to evangelism.
As an evangelical Christian, I believe the premise of a fall being at the core of reforming lives. I believe the concept of grace and forgiveness comes from having fallen from something.
Now, I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on our society, but I will go out on a limb and say that among the various problems and crises currently facing us at home and abroad, the (non-existent) "scientific" fight over intelligent design doesn't make the top ten list. Or the top one-hundred list. Hell, I think it is safe to say that it doesn't make the list, and anyone who says it does has such a bizarre, misguided sense of priorities that they themselves are likely to line up higher on the "List of Things Holding Society Back" than the straw man of a debate over this conjured-up political issue.
Now, how that occurred - whether you believe in the young earth theory, gradual evolution, or whatever - is disputed. Those become religious. But whether there was a fundamental designer who developed a complex DNA molecular structure is critical. Since I view that as the most important thing in the world, yes, being in a movie that advanced that cause was the personal highlight of the year.
I don't get to say this very often. Courtesy of the News-Sentinal:
"Right now, we're the party of 'greed and corruption,' " said Mark Souder, R-3rd District...
He blames part of their problem on "media hype," but generally the media doesn't hype corruption charges that don't exist. Just ask Sen. Ted Stevens...
Despite our optimism over the potential upset brewing in the Third District, make no mistake: This is a reliably Republican district. George W. Bush won it with 68% of the vote in 2004, and there are very, very few incumbent GOP congressional representatives who even have to raise a finger in defending this kind of seat.
Which is exactly why national political observer Stu Rothenberg thinks Rep. Mark Souder should be abandoned by the cash-strapped NRCC, left to wander the wilderness by himself.
Five GOP incumbents who have benefited from a total of more than $2.2 million in NRCC spending also should have been cut loose immediately and told to fend for themselves: Reps. Randy Kuhl (New York's 29th district), Bill Sali (Idaho's 1st), Jean Schmidt (Ohio's 2nd), Mark Souder (Indiana's 3rd) and Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado's 4th).
Each of the districts represented by these incumbents is reliably Republican under normal circumstances, and their vulnerability, even in this political environment, reflects their individual weaknesses. In 2004, Bush carried Sali's district with 69 percent, Schmidt's with 64 percent, Souder's with 68 percent and Musgrave's with 58 percent. Kuhl's district was the closest of the bunch, with Bush winning it with 56 percent.
It says a great deal about Sali, Schmidt and Souder that they ran so far behind Bush. Not all conservative candidates in those districts necessarily would run so poorly. These three simply have limited appeal, and the NRCC shouldn't have to spend considerable resources every two years to rescue them in districts that they should retain easily.
Ouch.
I'll leave a defense of the potential partisan sea change we're seeing this year for another post, but I can't exactly disagree with the assessment that this is a district the Republicans theoretically shouldn't have to worry about.
If the NRCC insists on throwing good money after bad, the least we can do is throw our good after, uh, good. You get the idea: Donate to Mike Montagano today.
Governor 61% - Mitch Daniels 30% - Jill Long Thompson
Third Congressional District (MoE +/- 5.7%) 44% - Mike Montagano (D) 41% - Mark Souder (R)
This is the second independent poll to show Montagano competitive, and provides further affirmation of Obama's statewide competitiveness. The gubernatorial numbers are obviously a reason for concern, and I would imagine that even Brian Howey doesn't believe we'll see a margin that large on election night. A recent Research 2000 pegging of a 12-point race seems much more believable.
There is a lot of additional information in the full data dump, and I'm still parsing it all myself. Feel free to drop in the comments any other gems you come across.
The latest poll of the 3rd District echoes the recently leaked internal numbers of Democratic challenger Mike Montagano, and shows that Rep. Mark Souder has a highly competitive race on his hands.
45% - Mark Souder (R) 40% - Mike Montagano (D) 4% - Bill Larsen (L) 11% - Undecided
Favorable / Unfavorable / No Opinion Mark Souder -- 46% / 43% / 11% Mike Montagano -- 41% / 29% / 30%
This same poll pegged the 3rd as +15 for McCain, which sounds bad until you realize that Bush won the district in 2004 by 36 whopping points. Last night I also was told that a recent poll of the 9th District had Obama up by single digits. In the 9th District.
This congressional pick-up is a real possibility, and so is a "Blue Indiana" in just a week. But don't let your guard down! Get out there and do your part for the next seven days to make sure next Tuesday is the best it can be.
What's better than one wacky Republican congressperson opening their mouth when they shouldn't? How about a second joining in on the act?
Enter our very own Rep. Mark Souder, stage right-wing lunatic.
SOUDER: I read the whole interview. Chris Matthews tried to trick her into that question, over and over for the entire interview. Unfortunately, her last comment, she fell for the trap. No, we shouldn't have an investigation into Congress. They are elected by the people of the United States. I have full faith and confidence. Now, I think some of them, for example, Sen. Obama, should be careful who he pals around with.
In other words, Souder believes that Bachmann's very clear (and very controversial) statements were, apparently, the fault of Chris Matthews. No matter that Matthews simply asked the question, and every other reasonable person prompted in such a way recently has been able to avoid the "trap" presented by such a very simple line of inquiry.
The comments were indefensible.
The sentiment that Barack Obama is anti-American -- echoed here by Mark Souder himself -- is similarly out of line, and more importantly completely out of touch with what a clear majority of the country (and a good portion of Souder's constituency) feels.
If Mark Souder wants to tie his fortunes to the far right-wing of his party, we'll be glad to let him. The 3rd District is tired of the unproductive political games of the Bush-era, and Mike Montagano is ready to give them back the representation they deserve.
Mike Montagano is running neck-and-neck with tired incumbent Mark Souder for a reason: Voters in the 3rd District are tired of having shoddy representation from a guy who seems more interested in his twelve fantasy sports teams than serving them in Congress.
Well, that and the fact that Mark Souder is just a frick-frackin' idiot.
"We thought Obama was going to melt under pressure and be intimidated by the war hero John McCain, but in my opinion, Obama has gained strength," Souder said.
He said Republicans are supposed to be the party of business and innovators. Souder encouraged Republicans to get out and vote and stand for Republican values.
"Melt under pressure?"
The guy organized in the poverty-stricken areas of Chicago, and Mark Souder expected him to fold up and go home when he had to share a stage with John McCain's incoherent Bush-era talking points?
And just so we're clear, someone should probably tell ol' Mark that his friends in big-business land have been doing fine over the last few eight years. The rest of us are ready for our turn to be represented.
The political observers over at The Cook Political Report have released their latest updates, and this is of particular note to those of us in the Hoosier State.
[...]
IL-14 Bill Foster Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
IN-03 Mark Souder Likely Republican to Lean Republican
IN-09 Baron Hill Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
KS-02 Nancy Boyda Toss Up to Lean Democratic
[...]
With the DCCC backing both candidates, and the national Republican organizations struggling to keep the lights on, both of these races look better by the day.
They also released their latest take on our gubernatorial contest, providing a relatively lengthy look at where things stand less than three weeks from election day.
While it seems that Daniels is ahead and has some important advantages, the polls here give us some pause since they've been all over the map. In the five credible public polls taken since Labor Day, Daniels is ahead by either one point or 21 points. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to the widely diverse results. They don't seem to be driven by events, nor do they represent a gradual closing of the gap between the two candidates. The last two polls, for example, were taken within days of each other. One had Daniels ahead by four points and other by 19 points.
It's impossible to determine where the race really stands, but our sense is that Daniels is ahead, and that Long Thompson's opportunity to catch him is dwindling fast. The race stays in the Lean Republican column.
Back by popular demand, I bring you this quarter's congressional fundraising totals from across the state.
Incumbent
Total Q3 Fundraising
Cash on Hand
Challenger
Total Q3 Fundraising
Cash on Hand
IN-1
Rep. Pete Visclosky
$63,335.00
$1,123,798.49
---
---
---
IN-2
Rep. Joe Donnelly
$142,887.86
$559,233.97
Luke Puckett
$53,708.39
$17,509.71
IN-3
Rep. Mark Souder
$216,987.38
$451,756.49
Mike Montagano
$152,485.49
$31,255.90
IN-4
Rep. Steve Buyer
$270,674.86
$806,324.83
Nels Ackerson
$128,782.53
$100,632.78
IN-5
Rep. Dan Burton
$199,774.70
$359,866.96
Mary Etta Ruley
TBA
TBA
IN-6
Rep. Mike Pence
$142,557.48
$417,601.56
Barry Welsh
$3,233.21
$9,380.03
IN-7
Rep. Andre Carson
$245,415.79
$186,951.99
Gabrielle Campo
$20,720
$11,836
IN-8
Rep. Brad Ellsworth
$267,651.31
$735,413.07
Greg Goode
$48,802.93
$43,860.25
IN-9
Rep. Baron Hill
$206,928.26
$684,909.30
Mike Sodrel
$177,387.86
$263,642.79
There's really nothing but good news for us in these numbers. Here are a few things of note:
The first thing you should notice is the absolutely piss-poor job the formerly-celebrated GOP challengers have done this cycle. Greg Goode and Luke Puckett (when he bothers to file reports) can't raise a dime to save their political lives, which were likely dead before those contests even started.
Congressman Baron Hill continues to kick ass in the 9th District, and Mike Sodrel posts another lackluster set of figures that will undoubtedly dishearten Republicans who were depending on Millionaire Mike to sustain his own effort. Keep fighting until the finish on this one, folks, but things are looking great right now.
Mike Montagano gave us another impressive effort in the 3rd District, and keep in mind when looking at his CoH number that he was able to spend out a lot more due to the dedicated funds he'll be receiving from the DCCC. We're right where we need to be in this contest.
Although the CoH figure will be a huge hurdle in the final weeks, kudos to Nels Ackerson in the 4th for outperforming any and all expectations for a Democrat in this decidedly difficult district. Great stuff.
A tip o' the hat to Jeff Pruitt in the comments for pointing out this Fort Wayne Observed scoop:
Sources tell FWOb that $487,000 has been committed to television advertising by the DCCC in the Third District. That represents an approximately 1900 point buy which means even the most casual television viewer is likely to be exposed to the advertising numerous times.
The first ad is to begin running this morning.
Real money for a real race, folks. This one is on the national radar, now, so all of you in the region should get out and do your part to help Mike Montagano defeat the out-of-touch Mark Souder.
Update: Here's the first ad that hit the air this morning.
This afternoon brings more bad news for 3rd CD Rep. Mark Souder, this time from unnamed sources within his own party. The Washington-based Roll Call takes a look at the horrific playing field nationally for Republicans, and targets Democratic challenger Mike Montagano as a candidate to watch in the final weeks.
Among this group of potential upsets, Souder might be the most vulnerable. His campaign operation appears to have engendered the most criticism among Republican operatives familiar with these newly competitive races.
Montagano has raised more money than Souder, has made inroads with the 3rd district's moderate and business-minded Republicans who have never warmed to Souder's strident conservatism and has developed a reputation for being personable.
Mark Souder, on the other hand, hasn't been all that great at making friends over the last few years. Apparently this even applies to individuals within his own party...
Souder has never faced a competitive general election race, has never been a big fundraiser and is viewed as abrasive. One Indiana-based GOP operative expects the strong conservative lean of the Fort Wayne-area district and the presidential turnout to ultimately save Souder's job.
But he said the Congressman isn't doing himself any favors with his advertising, and he added that media there would be cheap for the DCCC to purchase. Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is making a strong play for Indiana's electoral votes, and his organization might also aid Montagano on Election Day.
"I think Souder's under 50, and I think it's in single digits," the Indiana Republican operative said. "Do I think it's in the margin [of error] yet? No. But Montagano doesn't have to be in the margin yet. There are still three weeks left."
First came the news that Democratic challenger Mike Montagano's effort against Rep. Mark Souder is now part of the DCCC's oft-celebrated Red to Blue program. Then came the release of polling numbers showing the contest in this +16 PVI district down to a mere five points.
And what do we have today? Word from the Cook Political Report (via Politico) that the cash-strapped Republicans are pulling money out of competitive races elsewhere to defend Mark Souder.
If 2008 looks like 2006, a new wave of veteran Republicans will be out on the streets, and the colleagues they leave behind could find themselves with the smallest minority since the post-Watergate era.
"If you're a Republican in a less-than-outstanding district, you want to have taken a poll in the last two weeks no matter who you're running against," said David Wasserman, an analyst on House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
"The DCCC has made advertising decisions that have forced Republicans' hands," he continued, mentioning Terry's seat in Nebraska and one held by conservative Rep. Mark Souder in Indiana. "Republicans, in turn, need to spend in these districts. And $500,000 to the [National Republican Congressional Committee] is a whole lot more meaningful than $500,000 to the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]."
At face value, this isn't exactly the best of news. Obviously it would have been preferable to simply have Montagano run against the anemic fundraising machine that Souder has become known for. That being said, this move does send two positive messages.
First, this district is in play. While those on the right cling to their strategy of playing dumb, those in the know recognize that a Montagano victory is increasingly likely as the GOP brand continues to nosedive in Indiana and elsewhere. And with the rumor mill churning over the great numbers for the Obama campaign in the northeast corner of our state, Montagano will only be helped by the extremely active Campaign for Change in his area.
(Michelle Obama will be visiting Fort Wayne tomorrow, in case you think I'm making this stuff up.)
Secondly, keep in mind that this now spreads the NRCC even more thin in a state they are already struggling to compete in. Mike Sodrel is underperforming in the 9th, and Congressman Baron Hill is tearing up the campaign trail with great momentum. Will the NRCC be forced to pull out of the 9th CD to play defense in the 3rd? If they try and compete in both, will they even be able to get a message out above the inescapable din of presidential politics? Could we enter 2009 with a 6-3 advantage in the congressional delegation? Could Nels Ackerson make it 7-2?
A lot of questions, and not a lot of good answers for the GOP.
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