Via my homeboy Chris Cilllliizzzza of the Washington Post's "The Fix" comes the latest poll of the Hoosier State -- this time from anti-abortion activist group Susan B. Anthony List:
The data show former Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) leading Ellsworth 50 percent to 35 percent for the open seat being left by retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.).
The group also polled districts held by three other anti-abortion rights Democrats who supported the health-care bill earlier this year -- Rep. Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and freshman Reps. Steve Driehaus (Ohio) and Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.). While Donnelly appears to be in good position, Driehaus is trailing by 10 points and Dahlkemper leads within the margin of error.
Donnelly leads state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) 52 percent to 35 percent and comes from a district where a majority of voters approve of the health-care bill.
Par for the course for Ellsworth's effort, unfortunately, but these are certainly encouraging numbers in the Fightin' Second, where Walorski's folks have been talking a big game for months.
By now you've probably heard the latest ugly incident to arise out of Republican attempts to debate like adults. If not, here's the skinny:
Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) acknowledged late Sunday night that a Republican yelled "baby killer" as Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) urged his fellow Democrats to vote down a Republican amendment on abortion services in the health-care legislation.
The remark drew immediate shouts of derision from the Democratic side of the aisle, as Stupak is considered the leading anti-abortion Democrat and held out his support for the legislation until President Obama issued an executive order restating the ban on federal funding of abortion.
While Republicans have yet to give up who on their side of the aisle couldn't keep it together, it's worth noting who is willing to stand with this kind of behavior.
Take, for instance, 2nd Congressional District candidate Jackie Walorski, who traveled to D.C. yesterday to speak to the Michiana 9/12 group, a Glenn Beck-inspired organization that publicly encourages such enlightened discussion as this:
BART STUPAK'S PRICE FOR KILLING THE BABIES WAS CHEAP INDEED...
Considering that Walorski has still failed to condemn the NRCC for using robo-calls in her district, I doubt we'll see her come out of the shadow of such hate groups long enough to stand up for what is right.
To recap yesterday's developments, Republican Attorney General Greg Zoeller -- to his credit -- has gone on an all-out offensive over the National Republican Congressional Committee's skirting of Indiana's ban on automatic dialing calls, or "robo"-calls.
Reports say the healthcare-themed calls were placed in three congressional districts, and it doesn't take a lot of thinking to figure out which ones we're talking about.
Republican challengers in those districts -- to their detriment -- have remained notably silent over the intrusions into the households they supposedly want to represent.
One of these challengers, State Rep. Jackie Walorski, owes even more of an explanation to the people of Indiana's Second District.
See, back in 2007, Walorski supported HB 1046, which would have strengthened Indiana's robocall ban. You can see her "Yea" vote here.
Flash-forward to 2010, and Walorski's nowhere to be found while her friends in Washington laugh in the face of Hoosier privacy on her behalf with thousands of invasive phone calls to voters in Northern Indiana.
For a candidate who describes herself so often as a politician of principle, every passing day of silence proves more and more that Walorski is willing to talk the talk, but not walk the walk.
Don't worry, folks. The Great Porn Dragon won't sleep easy tonight, because everyone's favorite Nazi-sympathizer is back on the case. As it turns out, this may be the only case he works on for a while.
Zirkle has been interested in the 2nd District seat for years. This is his fourth run for Congress.
He finished third in a three-person race for the Republican nomination in 2008 and second in two-person races for the nomination in 2006 and 2004.
Zirkle's law license was suspended for at least two years in August after a judge found him guilty of professional misconduct. He said he has been living in Lake County, which is not in the 2nd District, since closing his South Bend law office last summer.
As he has in the past, Zirkle said his platform will be based on the belief that Congress needs to crack down on pornography to make this a better nation.
State Rep. Jackie Walorski seized on Zirkle's candidacy as evidence that yes, indeed, there are people more out of touch with mainstream Hoosiers than her.
But don't take my word for it, here's the take of all-around good guy Butch Morgan.
Butch Morgan, chairman of the Democratic Party of St. Joseph County, said comparing the Massachusetts Senate race with politics in northern Indiana is "a little bit like comparing apples and oranges."
Many races county voters will decide in November will include incumbent Democrats, whereas the Massachusetts special election was an open race to fill the seat the late Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy occupied since 1962. Coakley, the state's attorney general, has been accused of letting up after she had a 15-point lead in early January and many Democrats reportedly decided not to vote in the election.
"If our congressman (Joe Donnelly, D-Granger) had a double-digit lead two months out, he would work like he was 10 points behind," Morgan said.
"Every district, every state has its own set of circumstances. There are a lot of dynamics (in Massachusetts) that are not going to happen here."
Amen.
More importantly, it's worth noting that the presumptive GOP candidate, State Representative Jackie Walorski, has never, ever shown herself capable of building the kind of broad political coalition that we saw in Massachusetts.
In short, she's a divider, not a uniter.
Congressman Joe Donnelly, on the other hand, has proven time and time again that he's beholden first and foremost to his constituents, and his voting record shows that. The health care vote may be politically charged, but in a district with double-digit unemployment rates everywhere you look, people realize that the "health care crisis" isn't just a talking point -- it's an undeniable part of everyday life for millions of Hoosiers.
Mike Sodrel, he of four-time loss fame, has done it again, and thus we are almost undoubtedly assured of at least five or six months of campaign trail wackiness from that second-most famous 'stache in the state.
(For what it's worth, Shella's got him beat by a landslide.)
What I find most interesting about this latest bout with delusions of grandeur is just how little fanfare has accompanied the announcement. Aside from some conservative bloggers and a few brief local and AP blurbs, Sodrel's entry into the race has been greeted with a decidedly muted reaction for a candidate who for the last few months has been heralded as a game-changer by his party's faithful.
More than anything, Sodrel's hat-tossing is indicative of a decidedly down year for candidate recruitment at the congressional level here in the state. Granted, the field may not be as bleak as last year's chuckle-fest, but we're talking about slim pickings at best. A quick recap:
2nd District: Wacky Jackie Walorski announces a bid, which will no doubt be fueled by the fringe elements that have held her aloft for years.
8th District: A bottom-of-the-barrel self-funding doctor and a motorcycle blogger round out the current crop in a district that seems to fall more in love with Congressman Brad Ellsworth every year.
9th District: Travis Whatshisface spent the summer spending every penny he brought in on pizza for his interns, Todd Young has tried so hard that you almost feel bad for how little people seem to like him, and Mike Sodrel has become a perennial punchline. Not exactly overwhelming.
If anything, the current GOP crop seems more geared toward softening the beachhead for the first post-redistricting cycle, as most of the candidates are doing little to indicate they'll have the institutional or grassroots support to raise much of a ruckus.
Don't misunderstand me: we're going to have to fight like hell to keep these seats. But the reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated.
I wonder if she'll ceremonially dump her filing papers in the St. Joseph River inside a giant tea bag?
Indiana State Rep. Jackie Walorski announced today her intention to run for the 2nd Congressional District on the Republican ticket.
Walorski, a resident of Jimtown, made the announcement this morning on WFRN radio station.
"I am filing for my exploratory committee today because it is increasingly difficult to stand by and watch Washington move down a path that the majority of voters don't agree with," Walorski said in a prepared statement. "The frustration in the 2nd Congressional District is palpable," she said.
Let's be clear here: Joe Donnelly has spent the last few months working tirelessly with both sides of the aisle to fight for the best interests of his constituents. Jackie Walorski has flown around the country to participate in teabagging protests, going so far as to camp out across the street from President Obama's recent appearance in Wakarusa so as to voice her displeasure with ...um... socialism. Or something.
Donnelly v. Walorski -- Reasoned, Rational Discussion v. Radical, Partisan Divisiveness
Jackie Walorski vs. Joe Donnelly. That's the race for Congress the National Republican Congressional Committee wants in Indiana's 2nd District in 2010.
The NRCC, plotting campaign strategy for Republican control of the U.S. House, tried unsuccessfully to convince Walorski to run against Donnelly, the Democratic congressman from Granger, in 2008.
Will Walorski run this time?
She doesn't say "yes." But she doesn't say "no."
Say yes!
The piece goes on to describe the multi-faceted candidacy Walorski would bring to the table, including her rabid brand of reactionary conservatism, and... uh, that's actually all she'd bring.
Well, that and a guaranteed six months of great blog posts here and elsewhere.
And in case you're wondering, she attributes the affectionate moniker "Wacky Jackie" to a sense among Democrats that she poses a real threat to popular incumbent Congressman Joe Donnelly. You know, rather than the other option, which includes the fact that her cartoonish dedication to hyper-partisanship is humorous to the outside world.
To describe Congressman Brad Ellsworth as a "vulnerable" incumbent is more than a stretch, which may cast doubt on the legitimacy of the National Republican Congressional Committee's list of 70 targeted races for next year.
Republicans hope an improved national political environment will help them contest many of the seats it recently lost. Of the 70 targets, 45 are freshmen and sophomores elected in the 2006 and 2008 wave elections.
House Republicans also appear confident that difficult votes on health care and energy legislation will put battle-tested members from conservative districts in trouble. There are over a dozen Blue Dog Democrats on the list, including those who have coasted to re-election in recent years.
Congressman Baron Hill is the other Hoosier on the list, although he enjoys a huge cash advantage over both his potential opponents. Todd Young, the presumptive front-runner for the GOP nod, has racked up a fair number of endorsements, but has as of yet failed to excite Republican fundraisers.
Joe Donnelly, for his part, was left off the list entirely, apparently off the radar screen after two strong showings at the ballot box.
It looks as if our days of being a political backwater are behind us, as President Barack Obama has announced he will make his first fundraising trip to the Hoosier State next month on behalf of four quality Indiana Democrats.
President Obama plans to cap his cap-and-gown commencement address at the University of Notre Dame later this month with an Indianapolis fundraising event for four Indiana House Democrats, according to the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette's Sylvia Smith.
The president, with his sky-high approval ratings, could hardly be a better draw right now.
[...]
Among the four, only Carson's Indianapolis-based 7th District is a Democratic stronghold. Even as Obama in 2008 became the first Democrat to carry Indiana for president since 1964, Ellsworth's 8th District and Hill's 9th leaned to Republican John McCain, though by much smaller margins that those usually enjoyed by GOP presidential nominees.
Between this and the rumors that President Bill Clinton is likely to pop up in the state as well during May, it looks as if Indiana will stay on the national radar for at least a little while.
Everyone has heard about what is going on here in South Bend. People are already in town and protesting on a regular basis at Notre Dame. Local groups have gotten together and spoken to students from Notre Dame. The students have expressed that they do not want people interrupting thier commencement. These students have worked hard for four years and deserve to have a peaceful commencement.
We have decided to have a welcome rally for President Obama at the airport when he touches down. After the motorcade has left the airport we will be doing a community wide can food drive. All food that is colleced will be brought to our local Democratic Headquarters where we will donate it to the Northern Indiana Food Bank. The President and First Lady have always worked on community service projects and this is our way of welcoming him to our community.
We welcome people from all over the state to come to the rally to show their support for the President and the seniors at Notre Dame. If you are unable to come to South Bend you can make a difference by writing letters to the editor about this event.
Remember the commencement is about the students not a political agenda!
It's never too early to start pontificating on the next election cycle, especially if you make your money, uh, pontificating on the next election cycle. And thus, with little fanfare, the Cook Political Report released their initial race ratings for the 2010 cycle. Indiana is, at least at the moment, a real snoozer.
IN-1 -- Solid D IN-2 -- Likely D IN-3 -- Likely R IN-4 -- Solid R IN-5 -- Solid R IN-6 -- Solid R IN-7 -- Solid D IN-8 -- Solid D IN-9 -- Likely D
The only real things of note here are that Brad Ellsworth is now recognized as beyond mere mortals in an Eighth District that he has quickly made his own, and Baron Hill has effectively consolidated his political strength in the historically tight Ninth District. Oh, and Mark Souder is a really, really lazy campaigner, but somehow keeps winning.
I usually avoid beating up on the alma mater, but considering I've seen this point made a few times now, I figure it is worth a few thoughts. It seems that our future media overlords are no more astute than our current ones, which I suppose is to be expected. From the venerable Indiana Daily Student editorial board.
Surely the campaign for change must have done Rep. Baron Hill, D-9th, a lot of good. Locked in a perpetual contest with his Republican challenger - this was their fourth meeting - Hill finally scored the decisive victory he was looking for. Just four years after Mike Sodrel unseated Hill in 2004, Hill achieved a crushing victory with 58 percent of the vote.
The same could easily be muttered by casual political observers of the 2nd and 8th Congressional Districts, both of which were relatively closer in 2006. And they would be similarly incorrect.
The reason Baron Hill, Joe Donnelly, and Brad Ellsworth won so handily this year was not Barack Obama, but rather because they worked their asses off in Washington and back at home, running amazing campaigns from gate-to-gate. (There was a reason, after all, that the GOP couldn't find legitimate challengers willing to take a chance on these "Republican" districts.)
And while their positions on a few key issues were oft-maligned here and elsewhere, all have expressed a willingness to give a green light to the vast majority of President-elect Obama's legislative agenda.
There are benefits to a big tent, folks, and while it may not be palatable at the time, the pragmatic centrism of Indiana's Democratic delegation to the U.S. Congress may provide a blueprint for expanding our majorities in the Mountain West and elsewhere in the coming years. This isn't to say we can't provide pressure when necessary on points of contention, but there is something to be said for understanding the nature of Indiana's political landscape.
And quite frankly, I love crushing victories. The more the merrier, as far as I'm concerned.
Curious as to why the Republican party is failing miserably in every last corner of this great nation? Absurdity such as this has a lot to do with it:
When it comes to college education, Donnelly said he voted to increase Pell grants to make college more affordable and voted to decrease the interest rate on college loans. He said the Kalamazoo Promise - a college scholarship program offered to every public school student in Kalamazoo, Mich. - is something that can be done locally.
The government shouldn't step in for students, Puckett said. Although the government can offer some assistance, he said it shouldn't be the first solution students look to. Young people have incredible "work ethic," he said and if elected he will be a "sideline cheerleader" to help students accomplish their goals.
Ah, just what hardworking middle class families are looking for!
Because it is common knowledge that when we run out of gas on the highway, we always resent that AAA guy who gives us enough gas to get to the next exit. Lord knows we would feel better in the end if he simply drove slowly behind and cheered us on as we made the three mile hike there and back ourselves.
Back by popular demand, I bring you this quarter's congressional fundraising totals from across the state.
Incumbent
Total Q3 Fundraising
Cash on Hand
Challenger
Total Q3 Fundraising
Cash on Hand
IN-1
Rep. Pete Visclosky
$63,335.00
$1,123,798.49
---
---
---
IN-2
Rep. Joe Donnelly
$142,887.86
$559,233.97
Luke Puckett
$53,708.39
$17,509.71
IN-3
Rep. Mark Souder
$216,987.38
$451,756.49
Mike Montagano
$152,485.49
$31,255.90
IN-4
Rep. Steve Buyer
$270,674.86
$806,324.83
Nels Ackerson
$128,782.53
$100,632.78
IN-5
Rep. Dan Burton
$199,774.70
$359,866.96
Mary Etta Ruley
TBA
TBA
IN-6
Rep. Mike Pence
$142,557.48
$417,601.56
Barry Welsh
$3,233.21
$9,380.03
IN-7
Rep. Andre Carson
$245,415.79
$186,951.99
Gabrielle Campo
$20,720
$11,836
IN-8
Rep. Brad Ellsworth
$267,651.31
$735,413.07
Greg Goode
$48,802.93
$43,860.25
IN-9
Rep. Baron Hill
$206,928.26
$684,909.30
Mike Sodrel
$177,387.86
$263,642.79
There's really nothing but good news for us in these numbers. Here are a few things of note:
The first thing you should notice is the absolutely piss-poor job the formerly-celebrated GOP challengers have done this cycle. Greg Goode and Luke Puckett (when he bothers to file reports) can't raise a dime to save their political lives, which were likely dead before those contests even started.
Congressman Baron Hill continues to kick ass in the 9th District, and Mike Sodrel posts another lackluster set of figures that will undoubtedly dishearten Republicans who were depending on Millionaire Mike to sustain his own effort. Keep fighting until the finish on this one, folks, but things are looking great right now.
Mike Montagano gave us another impressive effort in the 3rd District, and keep in mind when looking at his CoH number that he was able to spend out a lot more due to the dedicated funds he'll be receiving from the DCCC. We're right where we need to be in this contest.
Although the CoH figure will be a huge hurdle in the final weeks, kudos to Nels Ackerson in the 4th for outperforming any and all expectations for a Democrat in this decidedly difficult district. Great stuff.
In case there was any remaining doubt as to Congressman Joe Donnelly's reelection, the recent WSBT/Tribune poll should bring an end to that nonsense.
Research 2000 400 LV - MoE +/- 5% Sept. 29-30
53% - Joe Donnelly 35% - Luke Puckett 3% - Vogel 9% - Undecided
Donnelly's campaign manager, Andrew Lattanner, said the campaign doesn't pay much attention to polls, but called the numbers a "reflection of (Donnelly's) hard work."
That said, the lead in the polls doesn't translate to any kind of break for campaign staff, Lattanner said.
"We don't take anything for granted," Lattanner said. "If there's one thing about Joe Donnelly, it's that he works extremely hard."
More encouraging news from CQ Politics, with a lengthy piece that examines the great campaigns being run by the three Democratic congressmen who won their seats in 2006. Actually, this article could just as easily be characterized as a long, hard look at how ineffective the Republican challengers have been thus far.
Republican officials, not surprisingly, stated they were going to go right after those Democratic winners: Baron P. Hill , who reclaimed the southeastern 9th District seat he lost two years earlier to Republican Mike Sodrel; Joe Donnelly , who unseated two-term Republican Chris Chocola in the north-central 2nd; and Brad Ellsworth , who bumped Republican John Hostettler from the seat he had held for six terms in the southwestern 8th District. All of their districts have rural, conservative-leaning constituencies that often favor Republicans. All went strongly in 2004 for President Bush, who took 56 percent of the vote in the 2nd, 59 percent in the 9th and 62 percent in the 8th.
But the Republican strategists' reach in Indiana appears to have exceeded their grasp this year. Hill is the only one of the three 2006 Democratic takeover winners who is currently rated by CQ Politics as facing a highly competitive challenge, and he is the only one facing a rematch - a re-re-rematch, actually, as this is the fourth consecutive House election in the 9th District matching Hill against Sodrel. Hill rebuffed a challenge from Sodrel in 2002, lost to him in 2004, then won the seat back in 2006. CQ Politics rates this race as Leans Democratic.
It's important to remember that while the Hill-Sodrel match-up may be the most competitive race of the three, this is all relative. Sodrel's fundraising has been lackluster at best, and his campaign efforts thus far have been limited to over-glorified telegrams and a lot of his family's semi-trucks. Not exactly impressive.
I was really, really sad when Chris Minor dropped his bid for the GOP nomination in the fightin' 2nd CD. He was, after all, a guaranteed laugh-a-minute, and his Blackwater non-employment would have been pure gold. Alas, it was not meant to be, and once neo-Nazi Tony Zirkle got his 17% of the vote out of the way, we were delivered the goofball that is Luke Puckett.
Yesterday we found out that Puckett's pocketbook problem was going to result in the firing of his campaign treasurer. Today brings the exciting conclusion!
Puckett told The Tribune on Monday that he would be asking Willis to step down, but both Puckett's campaign and Willis said Tuesday morning that Willis resigned before that could happen.
"We had every intention of asking for it, it was just the fact that while we were laying out the case, he went ahead and offered it without our asking for it," campaign spokesman Brian Sikma said.
Hilarious.
For those of you keeping score at home, this means that Puckett and the crack-staff over there essentially blabbed to the press about firing their treasurer before they actually blabbed to their treasurer about firing their treasurer. If that doesn't scream, "I would know how to handle a congressional staff," then I don't know what does.
Here's 2nd CD candidate Luke Puckett describing his commonsense approach to pocketbook issues.
As a small business owner, I know how crucial it is to keep as much cash in the pockets of taxpayers as possible.
Sounds pretty great, doesn't it?
Now, let's see that small business sensibility in action:
Puckett's quarterly report was due July 15, but the campaign missed the deadline, saying there was trouble with its accounting software, called "Aristotle."
The campaign filed a report on July 21 showing no contributions, and told The Tribune on Aug. 1 that the updated numbers would be sent later that week.
But the software failed again, Puckett said, and the campaign wasn't able to get numbers out until Monday.
The updated finance report shows the campaign received $24,450 in contributions from April 17 through June 30, and $25,850 for the entire election cycle.
It also shows the campaign $71,623 in debt, but that number is not accurate, Willis said in a phone interview Monday.
The campaign actually has about $60,000 on hand, he said. The discrepancy is because a $90,000 loan repayment was filed in the wrong category and recorded as an operating expense.
All of this in a story that deals not with the FEC report itself, but rather the fact that Puckett's campaign treasurer spent more than he had sixty-odd times over the last few months, racking up nearly $2,000 in bank fees.
As if the wacky YouTube confessional videos weren't enough to convince you that Puckett's candidacy is a joke, this comedy of errors should seal the deal. I mean, goofy Greg Goode in the 8th CD can't raise a dime to save his life, but at least he's honest about it.
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Republican challengers in those districts -- to their detriment -- have remained notably silent over the intrusions into the households they supposedly want to represent.
