The Indiana Debate Commission seems mighty content with themselves after running the three gubernatorial debates of this last cycle.
The commission is a nonpartisan, volunteer citizen and media group in its first year of operation. It partnered with Indiana's 16 public broadcasting television and radio stations to extend coverage of the debates between Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, Democrat Jill Long Thompson and Libertarian Andrew Horning. Daniels won the election.
"In the commission's first year of operation, we could not have expected more with everyone from the League of Women Voters working registration tables at the events to donated support in legal services and set design," said Kevin Finch, commission president and news director of WISH-TV in Indianapolis.
The debates were held in Merrillville, Jasper and Bloomington.
Personally, I thought the questions and structure left a lot to be desired. The last debate consisted almost entirely of "personal" questions that offered little more than opportunities for everyone to talk about how much they love God and Country.
Assuming a few of you were able to stay awake for at least one in its entirety, what were your thoughts on the debates?
Barack Obama was in Lake County yesterday, making what was described as a "closing argument" to Hoosier voters. Over 20,000 showed up in Highland to hear his message, and I certainly hope that the evening rally allowed the good senator to sleep in his own bed. Doubtful, I know...
Yesterday also brought us another statewide data dump, the product of a partnership between the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics and SurveyUSA. The results show Change v. More of the Same still locked in a close contest.
The poll showed Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama each receiving 47% of the support from the 900 registered and likely voters questioned. Despite the tight presidential race, the same poll showed Gov. Mitch Daniels with a commanding lead over his Democratic opponent, Jill Long Thompson.
[...]
While the choice over president was split, the poll showed the majority of Hoosiers believe the economy is the most important issue, and a slight majority of respondents felt Obama would handle that better than McCain. Obama also had leads in voters concerned about the environment, health care, Iraq and education. McCain held leads in voters concerned about terrorism, Social Security and immigration.
Daniels has a wide margin over Long Thompson, leading 55% to 38%.
The poll shows 4% voting for Libertarian Andrew Horning and 3% undecided.
Social Security? Are you kidding me?
Dubious single-issue results aside, these results echo everything else in the world, begging two obvious questions: Will Barack Obama carry down-ticket Hoosier Democratic candidates with him on election day? Will Jill Long Thompson be a drag on these same candidates?
Thoughts and opinions are welcomes in the comment section. The floor is yours.
The most remarkable thing about the polling we've seen in Indiana over the last few months? The lack of any substantial movement.
True to form, Hoosiers have been reluctant to swing back and forth in any dramatic fashion, and aside from a few outliers in the gubernatorial contest, the numbers have stayed in the same general area. The presidential contest has provided us with a painfully slow uptick in the Obama numbers over time, but has remained on the whole a neck-and-neck contest. The gubernatorial trend-line has just been painful.
With that in mind, Research 2000 has new numbers out for WISH-TV, and the script is all too familiar.
Yet the WISH-TV Indiana Poll shows Palin as the only member of either ticket with a favorable rating (45) lower than her unfavorables (48). And John McCain's last visit to Indiana came on July 1 when, in a 24-Hour News 8 interview, he talked about a greater presence in the Hoosier state.
Governor 54% - Mitch Daniels 40% - Jill Long Thompson
The poll also shows the governor gets more support from men than from women.
It's a ten point difference, 59 percent of men said they would vote for Daniels if the election were today. Forty-nine percent of women would re-elect the governor. About a third of the men surveyed said they prefer Jill Long Thompson. They're outnumbered by the women who say they prefer her.
Governor 61% - Mitch Daniels 30% - Jill Long Thompson
Third Congressional District (MoE +/- 5.7%) 44% - Mike Montagano (D) 41% - Mark Souder (R)
This is the second independent poll to show Montagano competitive, and provides further affirmation of Obama's statewide competitiveness. The gubernatorial numbers are obviously a reason for concern, and I would imagine that even Brian Howey doesn't believe we'll see a margin that large on election night. A recent Research 2000 pegging of a 12-point race seems much more believable.
There is a lot of additional information in the full data dump, and I'm still parsing it all myself. Feel free to drop in the comments any other gems you come across.
If there is any remaining doubt that Indiana is in play -- and despite my best efforts, there still seems to be some -- perhaps the third poll in as many days showing an Obama lead will have some effect?
President 49% - Barack Obama 45% - John McCain 3% - Other 3% - Undecided
Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, McCain is down 3, Obama is up 4. Today: White voters split; McCain had led by 9. There are few plausible scenarios in which McCain loses Indiana and still wins the White House.
Governor 54% - Mitch Daniels 35% - Jill Long Thompson 7% - Andy Horning 3% - Undecided
Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Daniels has increased his lead by 3 points, at a time when John McCain lost 7 net points in Indiana to Barack Obama and Republicans nationwide are being swallowed by a rising Democratic tide. Among white Hoosiers, Republican Daniels is 20 points ahead of Long Thompson, but McCain is zero points ahead of Barack Obama. Among Moderates, Republican Daniels ties Long Thompson, but Republican McCain trails Obama by 33 points.
I think these results are a testament to the benefit of two things: branding, and boatloads of cash.
The former is much easier with the latter, obviously, but there is no denying that both Mitch Daniels and Barack Obama -- as different as they are in nearly every way -- have shown a similar ability to brand their campaigns as something larger than themselves, and in the process generate a much broader appeal.
One other note would be the African American results out of this survey, which I still find somewhat dubious. Obama will garner more than 80%, and Long Thompson will almost certainly not push with Daniels. For that reason, always remember your healthy grain of salt when parsing numbers.
This one's not over, folks. Get out there and hit the streets!
The North Carolina-based outfit Public Policy Polling has answered my call and given us their latest survey of the Hoosier State. There's a lot of good news in here, if you can just ignore the gubernatorial contest entirely.
Governor 57% - Mitch Daniels 36% - Jill Long Thompson
Attorney General 42% - Linda Pence (D) 39% - Greg Zoeller (R)
Superintendent of Public Instruction 38% - Tony Bennett (R) 36% - Richard Wood (D)
“Barack Obama has a real chance to pull off a Midwestern sweep,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Indiana and Missouri are the two toughest wins for him there but we’ve found him with a two point lead in each of those states over the last week. If Obama can hold on to enough white voters in those places his overwhelming black support will put him over the top.” Obama’s surprising success in Indiana is not doing anything to help Jill Long Thompson’s prospects for defeating Governor Mitch Daniels. Daniels leads 57-36, holding Thompson to only 64% of the vote even with Democrats, and has a 56-32 lead with independents. Two other statewide races are too close to call and have a lot of undecideds.
This is the first legitimate poll to take the state's temperature after the third debate. It doesn't include any "Powell bump," if such a thing exists.
If Obama's numbers in the 2nd, 3rd, 8th, and 9th CDs stay in the competitive range, and the vote totals are as expected in the 1st and 7th CDs, we could be in for a long, exciting Tuesday night.
My sense is that the AG race is probably our most likely statewide pick up at this point. As crass as it may be to say, there is a real chance that women Democrats who vote against Jill will give Linda Pence their support. Plus, Linda's commercials have been great, and she is gathering endorsements from papers all around the state.
The Indianapolis Star on the state's struggling economy, and the lackluster results that have followed Mitch Daniels since taking office:
By some measures, the efforts succeeded. Indiana has 37,000 more jobs today than when Daniels took office, and unemployment is lower here than in neighboring industrial states.
But the crucial gap in earnings per job has grown. In 2006, the last year for which state-by-state income data are available, earnings per job in Indiana averaged $41,007 -- trailing the national average of $47,286 by almost $6,300, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
This was the widest gap in a generation. The trend continues today. Indiana has replaced jobs in manufacturing, where pay averages almost $70,000 a year, with service work in fields such as health care, where 31,000 new jobs have emerged since January 2005. But in the health-care field, pay averages about $43,000.
At a time when Indiana most needed a strong leader, Mitch Daniels stepped forward to serve with distinction. The Star enthusiastically endorses him for a second term.
The political observers over at The Cook Political Report have released their latest updates, and this is of particular note to those of us in the Hoosier State.
[...]
IL-14 Bill Foster Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
IN-03 Mark Souder Likely Republican to Lean Republican
IN-09 Baron Hill Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
KS-02 Nancy Boyda Toss Up to Lean Democratic
[...]
With the DCCC backing both candidates, and the national Republican organizations struggling to keep the lights on, both of these races look better by the day.
They also released their latest take on our gubernatorial contest, providing a relatively lengthy look at where things stand less than three weeks from election day.
While it seems that Daniels is ahead and has some important advantages, the polls here give us some pause since they've been all over the map. In the five credible public polls taken since Labor Day, Daniels is ahead by either one point or 21 points. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to the widely diverse results. They don't seem to be driven by events, nor do they represent a gradual closing of the gap between the two candidates. The last two polls, for example, were taken within days of each other. One had Daniels ahead by four points and other by 19 points.
It's impossible to determine where the race really stands, but our sense is that Daniels is ahead, and that Long Thompson's opportunity to catch him is dwindling fast. The race stays in the Lean Republican column.
Gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson continued a line of attack she began during last night's debate, hammering Governor Mitch Daniels for what she believes are risky investments being made with state money. WTHR covers this morning's set of dueling press conferences.
During Tuesday night's final debate at IU-Bloomington, Long Thompson said the state invested $700 million of the toll road money in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and another $300 million in junk bonds.
Jill Long Thompson elaborated on that claim which State Treasurer Richard Mourdock calls bizarre.
"You can't take credit for the projects and not simultaneously take responsibility for how the money gets invested. He brokered the deal, he sold the road, he took the money, he wrote the statute and he's wrapped himself in this deal. Now he's trying to distance himself from how the dollars are invested," said Long Thompson.
"It would be a concern if there was a high level of risk, but remember, it is fully backed up with the full faith and credit of the United States government. So no, in that case it is not. The more risk you are willing to accept, the more diversity, the more diversification you should accept. So we see that as fully appropriate," said Mourdock.
If a victory happens in a debate, but no one is there to see it, does it make a sound?
That's the question I was left with tonight as I wandered out of the IU Auditorium. Because even as Jill Long Thompson appeared to hit her stride in terms of riffing attacks against Mitch Daniels, you could almost sense the lack of urgency in either candidate's approach to this evening's joint appearance.
This contest wandered into the political wilderness some time ago, forgotten as the flashy presidential circus rolled into town. Mitch's ubiquitous ads continue to peddle his wares unabated, and Jill Long Thompson has yet to find an articulate way to inject herself into the change narrative.
Unfortunately, I doubt that will change over the next few weeks.
But it should, and I encourage all of you to do what you can in these final weeks to support Jill. She did well tonight -- I just wish I could believe it mattered.
Here's a reminder that the final debate between Mitch Daniels, Jill Long Thompson, and that other guy will be tomorrow on the beautiful campus of Indiana University. The event is scheduled to be a sit-down affair, and although all of the tickets have been given away, you can catch the action online at the IDC website. Mary Beth Schneider of the Starsets the stage:
Cam Savage, spokesman for Daniels' campaign, said that "in the first two debates, a lot of time was spent looking backward."
He said Daniels will use the last debate to discuss his plans for the next four years.
Jeff Harris, spokesman for Long Thompson, said the debate format will allow for a more "conversational" discussion of the issues.
"It will give her an opportunity to go into more length about her plans," he said.
If you have missed either of the first two events, you can check out the archived footage at IndianaDebateCommission.com.
(This humble blogger will be in attendance, so be sure to say hello if you see me wander by.)
That's the word from the Indiana Manufacturers Association, a decidedly unbiased source who coincidentally uses the same pollster as the Indiana Republican Party. Still, the numbers are less than encouraging, and the nature of the poll -- they only sought out newly registered or re-registered voters -- means it is difficult to compare this to anything we've seen before.
Thirty-one percent said they would vote straight Democratic, 19 percent straight Republican; and 37 percent said they'll split their ticket. The poll shows that including committed voters and those who say they are leaning toward voting for a candidate, Governor Mitch Daniels leads Jill Long Thompson by 49 to 30 percent. Daniels is viewed favorably by 52 percent of newly registered voters, while Long Thompson is viewed favorably by 25 percent of this group.
Fully, 42 percent of the newly registered voters have never heard of Long Thompson. Respondents were asked to name an issue most important to them and then asked which candidate for governor they believed would do a better job of handling that issue. Daniels was favored on that measure by 43 to 26 percent.
The poll was conducted October 2-6, on behalf of IMA and IMPAC, by Bellwether Research & Consulting of Arlington, Virginia.
The second part of WISH-TV's statewide survey has hit the streets, and it reveals a race that is still competitive with less than a month remaining on the campaign trail.
Research 2000 for WISH-TV 800 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 3.5% Sept. 29 - Oct. 3
49% - Mitch Daniels 45% - Jill Long Thompson 3% - Other 3% - Undecided
Two more interesting findings in the poll indicate Jill Long Thompson is winning more of the independent vote but just barely. Also, 22 percent of black voters are still undecided. That could be where this race is won or lost.
While Republicans scramble to discredit this poll, the question remains: How many "outliers" does it take to make a trendline? Until the polling stops jumping all over the place, I doubt we'll have an answer.
Last month, Jill Long Thompson's campaign for Indiana governor was virtually written off by most serious observers of politics. She pulled her ads, shut down field operations, spent time campaigning in previously "safe" areas, and has been virtually invisible in most of the state for the past three weeks.
The reason she took her ads down, she said, was because they were working so well that they achieved what they intended them to do. The reason they closed down field operations, she said, was because nobody anticipated that the Obama campaign would have such a strong presence in the state. Her fundraising is also going "strongly," though few major contributions have been reported recently.
Frankly, what I saw was a campaign that couldn't afford the ads, didn't have the funds or volunteers to sustain a field operation, and a campaign that is no longer getting the significant fundraising support support from groups like EMILY's List. All the while, Mitch Daniels, the corporate stooge intent upon selling our state to the lowest bidder, has been able to create memorable, folksy, positive advertisements.
The Pollster.com "poll of polls" shows the race trending to a blowout for Mitch Daniels, with JLT averaging in the mid-30's and Daniels averaging in the low-50's. The last poll to show Jill leading Daniels is a Downs Center poll from April which showed a 3 point lead.
(It's not letting me embed the graph, but click the LINK to see)
Look at the information above, most good Democrats would ask "Is there hope?" Well, if two recent polls suggest that there is. A poll for the Indianapolis Star had JLT within striking distance of Daniels, who led 46%-42%. And now, a second independent poll from Research 2000 shows Jill in a statistical tie with Daniels:
47% - Mitch Daniels
46% - Jill Long Thompson
3% - Other
4% - Undecided
The most dangerous opponent in politics is the underestimated opponent. Jill Long Thompson is very underestimated at this point in the campaign. Republicans might not feel as threatened as they would if Jill were leading, and so the "stop Jill" energy isn't really strong at this point.
We need to be clear that JLT, like any challenger, is an underdog in this race. But the pieces could be in place for a stunning upset that will have Chris Cilizza eating crow.
There have been four polls of the race for governor in the last few weeks. Two showed the contest within the margin of error. Two showed the contest hopelessly out of reach.
It's madness.
And thus, the landscape of this race is simultaneously static and in upheaval. Nothing has palpably changed in the last month -- least of all after the first two lackluster debates -- and yet we have statewide surveys showing surges and stagnation. Jill Long Thompson is pointing to numbers that show her within striking distance, trying to jumpstart a fundraising effort that looks to have derailed. Mitch Daniels and the Republicans have declared this race effectively over, and have won over a number of statewide and national observers.
Take, for example, this morning's release of the Washington Post's gubernatorial line. Not twelve hours out from the release of Research 2000 numbers showing Jill Long Thompson tied with Daniels, we get this summary of the race from friend-of-the-site Chris Cillizza:
2008 Governors Line
5. Indiana (R): Democrats had high hopes for defeating Gov. Mitch Daniels at the start of the cycle. Daniels had struggled through his first four years in office and even Republicans admitted he was vulnerable. Then two things happened: Daniels ran a very solid reelection campaign and Democrats nominated the wrong candidate in former Rep. Jill Long Thompson. Thompson has struggled to raise money and is off the television airwaves with just five weeks before the election. Um, disaster. (Previous ranking: 2)
He's correct, of course, if we believe the worst-case scenario that had monopolistic control over the narrative until a few weeks ago. But with both Selzer and Research 2000 injecting a parallel universe into the equation, we're left with the bizarre task of taking sides in a battle between competing views on the state of the race.
It seems easy to take the unspoken middle road, and I've endorsed that over the last couple of days, but the political junkie in me can't help but take interest in the increasingly divergent worldviews jockeying for legitimacy in this contest.
The roller-coaster ride of independent polling continues, with Research 2000 following up SUSA's 16-point margin for Mitch Daniels with their own survey revealing a much, much tighter race.
47% - Mitch Daniels 46% - Jill Long Thompson 3% - Other 4% - Undecided
If you're a little put-off by the extreme highs and lows in the polling we've seen on this race, you're not alone.
My gut tells me the race is probably closer to this than the 20-point blowout that Republicans have been giddily discussing for weeks. The unspoken danger here, though, is that Daniels could at any given moment choose to take this race down a decidedly negative path -- a decision he would have the financial resources to back up with full effect.
I would imagine we'll see presidential numbers before too long. I'll bring you those when they hit the street.
The latest SurveyUSA poll of the Hoosier State is out, and it shows an increasingly bleak gubernatorial race, and an equally exciting presidential contest. The results:
Daniels now leads in all regions of the state: in previous polling, Long Thompson led in Northern Indiana. 25% of Democrats cross over to vote for incumbent Republican Daniels; 14% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Long Thompson. Independents favor Daniels by 25 points.
President 48% McCain (R) 45% Obama (D) 3% Other 3% Undecided
Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 2 -- an 11-point gender gap.
Among voters younger than Barack Obama, McCain and Obama tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 8. Among those who are in-between the two candidates' ages, McCain leads by 4.
[...]
Obama has gained ground over the past six weeks in the Indianapolis and Central Indiana areas; McCain has gained ground in Southern Indiana. In Northern Indiana, where voters see Chicago television from Obama's home state of Illinois, Obama led by 17 points fourteen weeks ago and by 5 points six weeks ago; today, Obama leads there by 1.
I would imagine that Horning won't muster a full 6% on election day, but if dissatisfied Republicans can't bring themselves to vote for the loyal opposition, anything is possible.
On the presidential front, I would expect that Obama's margin among women will grow over the coming weeks. If he can manage to outperform recent polling in southern Indiana, things could look very, very bad for McCain come November.
Will tonight's event be another snooze-fest? Will either Mitch Daniels or Jill Long Thompson give reason for a "Disaster in Jasper" headline tomorrow? Will the polls move if they do?
A lot of questions, and one might argue that the issue isn't so much that we don't have the answers, but that no one would care even if we did.
Personally, I disagree with most observers who say that Jill Long Thompson needs to come to the debate this evening and carefully, critically articulate her plan for Indiana. The time for that was a good while ago, specifically in the weeks after the primary election when the media would have given two hoots what was being said. Four months and sixteen gasoline sales tax press conferences later, I fail to see how a witty retort on the dangers of privatization is going to make much of a difference at all.
If I were Jill, I would come in tonight with guns blazing. Tell the room (and the state) that our economy is in the crapper, our state assets have been sold off to the detriment of generations to come, and we have every right to be mad as hell. More than anything, create some controversy. Inject some energy into a lifeless contest that will lose any luster it might have by the end of the week when the big stories emerge from the campaign trail to take the national stage for the next six weeks.
Get your name out there -- for better or worse at this point -- and then pounce on every last rare opportunity from now until November.
Those are my two cents. Use this for pre-game predictions, pontifications, and play-by-play analysis. You can watch the debate online at IndianaDebateCommission.com.
Post-debate thoughts: There were no winners and no losers in tonight's debate, and that's exactly what Mitch Daniels wanted. The less ink spilled over the event, the better for him, and I think it can generally be assumed that we won't see much in the way of wall-to-wall coverage tomorrow. The half-truths and misstatements from Mitch Daniels were the same we have been hearing for years, and the rebuttals from Jill Long Thompson were not in any way fundamentally different from their press releases that have been summarily ignored for months. It was a push of the worst variety.
And with the news today that John McCain has finally come to his senses and will compete against the Obama campaign in Indiana, there can be no doubt that the window for statewide candidates to get their message out is rapidly closing.
After this Friday, we could unfortunately see this entire race relegated to footnotes as the most competitive presidential election in 40 years takes over the Hoosier State.
After last week's underwhelming debate experience, some of you might be considering just skipping tonight's event. Balderdash, says the Anderson Herald Bulletin:
Democrat Jill Long Thompson is on the attack against Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels' privatization efforts, push for daylight savings time and ability to create jobs, though interpreting the latter is a strong point of contention between the two candidates. Libertarian candidate Andy Hornung is offering to put a leash on politicians.
These issues - culled from the first debate on Sept. 16 - were vast enough that voters on the fence may not have all the answers they need.
But there isn't much time left until the Nov. 4 election.
Tonight, the second debate will be held in Jasper. The third and final meeting is Oct. 14 in Bloomington. The debates have been airing locally on the PBS station, WFYI.
We expect more fireworks, more reasons to watch.
Once again, I'll have an open thread this evening, complete with links to watch online if you aren't the television type.
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