Democratic inboxes around the state just received a message from Senator Evan Bayh, and he had nothing but strong support for Congressman Brad Ellsworth as he begins his campaign for the US Senate.
I have known Brad for many years, first through his work as Sheriff in Vanderburgh County and then as a member of Indiana's U.S. House delegation. "Protecting and serving" Indiana communities is at the heart of everything he believes.
Brad will bring common sense Hoosier values to his work in the Senate. He will work to get the economy moving again, and he will make sure the Senate stays focused on progress not politics, solutions rather than slogans.
That is why I am urging you to support Brad Ellsworth for the United States Senate.
You can donate to the Ellsworth for Indiana campaign via his website.
Aside from the "why" -- as in why he retired -- and ignoring the "who" -- that would be who will replace him -- the "what" of Senator Evan Bayh's decision to step down is probably going to be the most interesting to watch, at least in terms of Bayh's own future plans.
The "what," of course, representing the question as to what he's planning on doing with the over $12 million in campaign funds he's currently sitting on.
Sylvia A. Smith of Journal Gazette fame turns her attention to the problem:
"He's a young man," [Democratic strategist Tad] Devine said of Bayh, who is 54. "He may want to do things politically in the future, whether it's run for governor or pursue another office or be involved in politics in some meaningful way where resources like that could make an enormous difference. Preserving it is a great option."
But even if he chooses that option, Devine said, Bayh could make substantial donations to Indiana congressional and state legislative candidates while still keeping at least $10 million in his campaign kitty.
"One of the real downsides to Evan Bayh not being at the top of the ballot this year is the impact it's likely to have on other races in Indiana. I know it's a very close legislative race there, for example. Not having his vote-drawing ability at the top of the ticket could affect these down-ballot races.
"So he may decide he wants to be involved in helping other Indiana Democrats win election. That's his political base. It would be a smart thing to nurture it," he said.
Bayh can't donate to the eventual candidate, but he could make a sizable contribution to the Indiana Democratic Party, the DSCC, or some other organization.
In prepared remarks, Bayh, 54, cited excessive partisanship that makes progress on public policy difficult to achieve as the motivation for his decision.
"After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so in Congress has waned," he said.
"My decision was not motivated by political concern," he added. "Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election."
Bayh had never lost an election, from his first win in 1986 as secretary of state, his wins for governor in 1988 and 1992 and his election to the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2004.
"But running for the sake of winning an election, just to remain in public office, is not good enough," Bayh said. "And it has never been what motivates me. At this time I simply believe I can best contribute to society in another way: creating jobs by helping grow a business, helping guide an institution of higher learning or helping run a worthy charitable endeavor."
Update: To provide a short answer to the question of the day -- no, there is little chance of anyone directly qualifying for the ballot per the 4,500 signature requirement. The result of this will be a vote by the State Central Committee as to a replacement on the ballot. No information is available yet as to a timeline for such things.
Tip o' the hat to Daily Activist in the comments. Research 2000, polling for DailyKos:
MoE 4%, 02/08-10
Bayh (D) 55
Coats (R) 35
Bayh (D) 53
Hostettler (R) 37
Not exactly encouraging for the Republican bigwigs who have been claiming for the last week that Coats has the statewide support to mount more of a challenge than the Land of Misfit Toys currently making up the field.
Ok, sit down while we try to explain this. It's getting complicated.
Dan Coats, the District of Columbia lobbyist who has lived in Virginia for ten years, but who really wants to be a North Carolinian, and was recruited by a Texan, is now hiring Kentuckians to get signatures from Hoosiers to get on the ballot in Indiana. Whew.
The fledgling candidacy of former Senator Dan Coats -- some have gone so far as to call it a belly flop -- hasn't exactly been a sterling example of how to manage a campaign kick-off. Whether the stories have revolved around Coats' out-of-state status, his lobbying connections, or his self-described preference for North Carolina over Indiana, the news cycle hasn't been all that kind to the guy.
But more than anything, it's beginning to look as if the biggest hurdle Coats will have to clear will be fending off attacks from within his own party. Recent days of have found his primary election opponents turning their guns away from Senator Bayh and pointing them squarely on the establishment candidate. Politico reports:
Former Indiana Rep. John Hostettler and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who have been in the race against Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh for months, both said they wouldn't stand down for Coats. Stutzman told POLITICO he's prepared to wage a "grassroots" campaign against the former senator, pointing to the tea party movement as a "huge" force that could be harnessed in the GOP primary.
"With all due respect to Sen. Coats, all the campaigning we've done and all the thousands of people that we've spoken to, people are tired of Washington. If there's one group people are more disenfranchised from than Washington politicians, it's lobbyists," said Stutzman, who represents a northeast Indiana district in the state legislature. "Sen. Coats has probably been back to Indiana fewer times than Sen. Bayh has and has those questionable relationships. If you're trying to contrast with Sen. Bayh, why would you go with Sen. Coats?"
Hostettler, too, told the Evansville Courier & Press last weekend that he's not concerned about Coats's possible entry.
"If I waited on the imprimatur of everybody that thought they knew how to run a political campaign, I probably would never have announced [for Congress] in 1994, either," he said.
Ouch. If you don't have enough anecdotal evidence already, one prominent Republican blog in the state features a poll right now showing the anti-Coats coalition squarely in the majority.
If conservatives don't do him in, the weather might. Coats has been forced to dispatch political operatives from Kentucky in his bid to earn the 4,500 signatures required to appear on the statewide ballot. In case you haven't gone outside in the last few days, Mother Nature hasn't exactly been cooperating.
On the bright side, it could be worse: Virginia has been worse off than us in recent days in terms of snowfall, which probably means Mr. Coats has had plenty of time to himself at home to question his decision to get into the race.
Call Indiana a "red" state or a "blue" state, there's one thing that most of the country has agreed on for a while: Dick Cheney was a terrifying presence in political process for far too long.
Which for an embattled Dan Coats, is worth remembering as he reads headlines like "Coats hires Cheney spokesman."
Republican Sen. Dan Coats - hoping to be the once-and-future Senator from Indiana - has hired a high-profile spokesman - Kevin Kellems, the former communications director for Vice-President Dick Cheney often tasked with defending the controversial Saddam Hussein-al Qaeda link.
Kellems has an unusually heavy-duty White House-national security resume, coupled with deep Hoosier connections. The Indiana native - who recently served as a spokesman for Secretary of State Todd Rokita who passed on a bid against incumbent Evan Bayh, and served as a spokesman for Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) before his White House stint and ran unsuccessfully for an Indiana House seat in '00.
For what it's worth, this makes day six or so in which we haven't heard from Coats, who appears content to drink his hot chocolate and cozy up next to his custom-made fireplace in Virginia while his pay-to-play workers trudge around the state collecting signatures.
Oh boy. Things just don't appear to be going well for our good friend Dan Coats. First, his GOP friends in Washington convinced him to put aside his lucrative lobbying job and float a senate candidacy. Then he quickly bumbled out of the gate as word of his financial dealings and ambivalence toward the Hoosier State trickled out.
Now? Well, there's video evidence that as of two years ago the guy didn't even plan on setting foot back in the state in any real meaningful way ever again.
But Coats said Friday afternoon that he's put aside his plans to retire and will sell that house.
"We do have a second home in North Carolina," he said in an e-mail, "and had plans to spend more time there after retiring. Obviously, I now have no plans to retire, so it's likely we will be selling our North Carolina second home."
In other words, he was going to abandon the state, but now he's totally committed to ol' Indiana.
Well, not so committed that he, you know, wants to actually own property here. But based on the fact that he is flippantly talking about selling a $1.8 million vacation home in the Carolinas, something tells me he'll have a decent hotel room once he gets around to visiting the state.
If there was any doubt that Dan Coats had cut all ties with his "home" state, this damning footage from a North Carolina event in September of 2008 makes it clear that he had no use for Hoosiers until he thought he might be able to win a senate seat.
Absolutely brutal - and spot on - email from the state party:
On behalf of Hoosiers everywhere, we'd like to welcome back Dan Coats to the State of Indiana.
After more than a decade working, living, and voting in Washington, D.C., it seems that Mr. Coats has decided to come back for a visit. The announcement that he is considering a run for the U.S. Senate has come as a surprise for those of us who haven't seen or heard from the Republican in a good many years.
No worries. Our welcome basket will soon be in the mail.
As soon as Mr. Coats lands, however, maybe he can find some spare time to talk to real Hoosiers about the issues that have been affecting this state while he was away. A lot has changed since Coats abandoned the Hoosier State for the posh life of a Washington insider.
While he's at it, perhaps Dan Coats can tell us about what he has been up to since he left town. He seems to have done well -- being a registered lobbyist for major financial institutions is a great job inside the Beltway from what we hear.
And with those banks receiving billions in TARP bailout money under his watch, it's hard to imagine Mr. Coats hasn't been reaping the benefits of that taxpayer money.
Between all of that lobbying, heading up the failed Supreme Court nomination of Harriet Miers, and championing Sarah Palin during the 2008 campaign, it's no wonder that Dan Coats was too busy to stop in and spend time in our state over the last decade.
Regardless, we wanted to extend our welcome -- if Mr. Coats would just let us know whether he wants the welcome basket to go to his Virginia address or his extended stay suite here in Indiana, that would be a great help.
If Coats is the hero the RNC is looking for, they must be really terrified of a Bayh vs. Hostettler race. And I'm not sure how Coats fits into the RNC's strategy against Bayh (as laid out by Greg Sargent):
NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh tells me the GOP response will be this: Target Bayh's wife, and the "Bayh family partnership."
GOP operatives point out that Evan and Susan Bayh have been criticized over her service on the boards of major insurers such as WellPoint, which reportedly earned her millions.
It's also interesting to note, as Chuck Todd did, that Coats' language on this has been very conditional: "allowing supporters to put his name on the ballot" and "as I test the waters for a potential challenge." Typical political posturing, or is there actually some hesitancy there?
I suppose any news is good news when you're launching a campaign and looking for free press, but Dan Coats appears poised to challenge this idea with a reported bid for office that seems to already be hitting choppy waters.
Politico reports the latest on Coats' struggles to convince people he's anything more than a Washington insider who was convinced to run by -- well -- other Washington insiders.
Coats, who resigned from the Senate in 1999, voted in the Virginia primary and general elections in 2000, according to data from the Virginia Secretary of State, provided by a Democratic source.
He voted in Virginia again in the 2002 and 2004 general elections, while he was serving as U.S. Ambassador to Germany; in the primary and general elections in 2005; and in general elections in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Data from the most recent election wasn't immediately available.
Coats residence, according to state election authorities, is in the Washington, D.C. suburb of Falls Chuch.
Informed and reliable sources are telling Howey Politics Indiana that former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats will announce Wednesday he will challenge U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh.
The source, former aide Curt Smith of the Indiana Family Institute, said that Coats knows he has about two weeks to gather the 4,500 signatures - 500 per Congressional district - in two weeks.
Coats was up for re-election in 1998 when he decided to retire, citing the pressures of constant fundraising. Bayh went on that year to defeat former Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke to reclaim his father's Senate seat.
Just to be clear, we're talking about a Bank of America lobbyist who by most accounts hasn't lived in Indiana for over a decade. Not exactly a recruitment coup d'etat.
But hey, at least he's not advocating for armed resistance to the federal government. Yet.
Via RedState, a copy of a letter to be sent out later today:
As many of you are aware, I have been approached about running for the United States Senate in 2010. Karen and I have been humbled by the outpouring of support and encouragement which we received from across Indiana, especially since there are several capable and qualified candidates already seeking the Republican nomination.
After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to remain in the House and to seek reelection to the 6th Congressional District in 2010.
I am staying for two reasons. First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.
One year ago I was unanimously elected chairman of the House Republican Conference, the third ranking position in House Republican leadership. I accepted that responsibility because I believed that if Republicans returned to their conservative roots, they could win back the confidence of the American people. And I see it happening every day.
Pence got his free press, which is all he was probably interested in to begin with.
So you heard about that Rasmussen poll, did you? The one that says Senator Evan Bayh is toast and the only decision left is whether Mike Pence or John Hostettler will be the next junior senator from the great state of Indiana?
Well, news travels fast these days.
I, too, read the results of this latest survey yesterday, and I'll admit to being a little taken aback at first. I mean this was, after all, a shocking set of numbers, and coming on the heels of the media-fueled PenceWatch '10 spectacle, seemed to signal the start of a perfect political storm.
But let's take a step back and look at the situation. Aside from the fact that early polls are almost always terrible -- I can show you a few from this time in 2008 proclaiming a McCain victory over Hillary Clinton in Indiana -- and ignoring the fact that the campaign season has yet to even kick off for either side in this race, there are some simple logistical problems with this gem of a poll.
Here are just a few:
This poll is at odds with every other internal/external set of numbers we've seen. Way off. Outliers happen, folks.
The damn thing was taken during the Colts game. Let me ask you: would you trust any statewide survey that was taken during an AFC Championship game featuring Peyton Manning and the boys in blue? I didn't think so.
Rasmussen has become increasingly ideologically motivated, and timing is everything. Politico covered recent criticisms of the outfit earlier this month, and the fact that Republican money paid for this poll while Pence sits on the fence should tell you everything you need to know about the "fair and balanced" output of Rasmussen.
Now, all that aside, it's worth noting that these results are indicative of what is shaping up to be an extremely tough year for incumbents both here in Indiana and across the country. Senator Bayh is well aware of this, and echoed such sentiments this morning on MSNBC.
"People are mad at Democrats, they're mad at Republicans. They are just angry at the situation. I've seen polls that show me in a stronger position than the one probably you just showed your viewers. The important thing is we focus on what matters to people. Job creation, getting the deficit under control, health care reform that will matter to them right now. The polls take care of themselves. The poll in my case is illustative. The people like me personally, I'm happy to say. I'm doing a good job for them. It's all this other stuff in Washington that has them upset. You've got to change business as usual in Washington. If I have one message this morning, that's it."
Smart money is still on this whole fiasco just being a PR push on the part of the Pence camp, but regardless of who the Republican candidate ends up being, Senator Bayh has the resources, the infrastructure, and the campaign trail skills to bring his message to Hoosiers. And media clusterfunfest aside, that's something that no poll -- ideological or otherwise -- can change.
As mentioned yesterday, Senator Evan Bayh has been pushing in recent weeks for a substantial move to address the ballooning federal deficit. Yesterday, he got his wish, with the announcement by officials in the Obama administration that a three-year discretionary spending freeze will be touted at tomorrow's State of the Union address.
Bayh praised the move as good policy and good politics.
"It was a good move, it was a strong move, and I think people across this country will say it's about time," Bayh said during an appearance on MSNBC. "It's not only the right substantive to do, it's also the shrewd political thing to do."
[...]
Bayh said the focus on the deficit would reposition Democrats politically after they had faced choppy waters over the last year. Bayh said "of course" the healthcare debate had taken too long, weighing on Obama and Democrats' popularity, and that the party should have focused more intensely on job creation in the past year.
"We need to speak directly to independents, moderate Republicans and say, look, we're going to pursue common-sense solutions to get this country back on track," he said.
As President Obama prepares a State of the Union address widely expected to focus on jobs, jobs, and jobs -- oh, and the deficit, too -- keep an eye out for Senator Evan Bayh to take the lead among Democratic fiscal conservatives.
Centrist Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) on Saturday urged President Barack Obama to call for a freeze in discretionary spending in his State of the Union address next week.
Bayh's comments come as Congress and the White House are grappling with ways to bring down the record federal budget deficit.
"The president could say in his State of the Union address, I'm going to include in my budget a freeze on discretionary spending, I'm drawing a line in the sand, and I'm going to use my veto pen to enforce that," Bayh said on Bloomberg's "Political Capital."
Even if President Obama moves toward the oft-rumored spending commission, I would be surprised if Bayh does not continue to be a leading voice in the debate.
Democratic politicians are on the verge of learning the exact wrong lesson from tonight's election. Can you sign this emergency petition telling them to be stronger -- not weaker -- in 2010?
"The loss of Ted Kennedy's seat -- due to a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats and Independents -- sends a clear message to Congress. The Senate health care bill is not the change we were promised in 2008, and it must be improved. The Senate must use 'reconciliation' to pass a better bill with a strong public option."
This is already a sad time for those of us who loved Ted Kennedy. But to make it even worse, conservative Democrats are claiming that the loss happened because Congress was "too far to the left." But poll after poll shows voters want Democrats to fight harder for change.
Bad candidates lose elections. That much we know. But it probably warrants repeating that good candidates win elections. And good candidates who happen to already be popular incumbents are in even better shape.
At least one Republican might do more than cheer for Massachusetts: House GOP Conference Chairman Mike Pence is now considering a campaign of his own against Sen. Evan Bayh.
The outspoken conservative could effectively clear the Republican primary field and give his party a top-tier opponent for one of the best funded Democratic incumbents in 2010.
Senator Evan Bayh -- along with Senator Richard Lugar, coincidentally -- has achieved unparalleled popularity with his personal brand of fiscally-conscious centrism.
Mike Pence has spent the better part of the last year throwing himself as far to one extreme of the political spectrum as he could manage.
And most importantly, Senator Evan Bayh is a good great candidate.
If the Republican Party wants to take one special election victory and translate it into a national campaign of self-destructive delusions, I say worse things could happen. But even I don't think Mike Pence is dumb enough to take the bait being dangled by GOP activists in Washington.
All logos and trademarks in this site
are property of their respective owner.
The comments are property of their posters, and
all other site content may be used for any purpose
without explicit permission
unless otherwise specified.
