Expect there to be roughly fifteen-thousand articles exactly like this one from The Hill over the next year or so as the elephant donkey in the room continues to generate speculative ink.
On Wednesday, Bayh said he still has no political plans and wouldn't rule a gubernatorial bid in or out.
"I loved being governor, but I've got no political plans," he said. "I literally have not decided what I'm going to be doing next year, political or otherwise. I'm going to serve out my term, and we've got important elections in November. But regarding my future plans, my deal with my wife is that she's going to be the first to know."
An interesting story out of Da Region, where the Times takes a look at the immediate effect that Senator Evan Bayh's retirement has had on the ever-evolving political landscape of northwest Indiana. Specifically, the way it has brought some subtlety to the previously boisterous fledgling gubernatorial bids of Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott and Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez.
Although Bayh has suggested he may go into business, education or charity, political observers speculate he might run for governor in 2012 and be the pre-emptive favorite thanks to his popularity among Indiana voters, many of whom fondly remember his years as governor from 1989 to 1996.
"I'm just running for re-election as mayor," McDermott said recently.
Dominguez said, "I have never been an officially announced candidate for governor. If Evan Bayh were to run for governor I would never run against Evan Bayh, and I would be honored to serve as his lieutenant governor -- if Evan Bayh were to run."
I know, I know...not exactly a newsflash. But the more and more I read coverage of the Guv's blustery temper-tantrum over the House's passage of comprehensive health care reform, the more I wonder how long Daniels will even attempt to maintain some semblance of truthfulness in his all-out attack on President Obama and this Congress.
The Republican governor said the federal legislation would mark the end of the state's Healthy Indiana Plan, or HIP, for low-income Hoosiers and ultimately would lead to state tax increases in order to cover the expanded number of Hoosiers who now would qualify for Medicaidunder the law.
"I think a very, very serious mistake was made . . . that will lead, certainly, to higher taxes, higher health-care costs and a much weaker economy going forward," Daniels said.
Shorter Mitch Daniels: Ending a program that helps less than 10% of uninsured Hoosiers to start a program that will help more than 90% of uninsured Hoosiers is a bad thing.
First of all, it's worth noting that the "end" of the HIP should coincide with the "beginning" of cheaper, more cost-effective health care coverage for not only those currently covered by the Healthy Indiana Plan, but also the vast majority of those not covered by any plan.
Secondly, I can't help but reiterate the similarities between Daniels' furious chant of "higher taxes, higher health care costs" and his furious chant of "lower taxes, lower Iraq war costs" in 2003.
The biggest similarity, of course, being that both are equally untrue.
I have no doubt we'll be hearing more on the benefits of this bill in the next few weeks -- and on toward November -- but the simple, inescapable fact that nearly a million Hoosiers will benefit in some way from this legislation, an estimated 80,000 small businesses in this state will receive health insurance tax credits, and 170,000 Hoosier seniors will see their "donut hole" disappear speaks volumes about the very real effect this legislation will have on Indiana.
Oh, and nonpartisan budget estimates have the full implementation of reform reducing the deficit by over a trillion dollars.
None of which is going to stop Mitch Daniels from trying to score political points in the name of playing the loyal opposition. For a guy who prides himself on being a non-politician politician, Daniels' slow march to the national scene has seen him evolve into an increasingly cookie-cutter cartoon of national Republican Party talking points.
The Courier & Press includes this blurb on the looming 2012 race in their weekly political column, noting the eyebrows beign raised by Congressman Baron Hill's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner schedule:
U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, a Seymour Democrat who represents much of Southern Indiana, long has been rumored as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2012.
He's doing little to tamp down those rumors.
Hill reportedly has accepted an invitation to speak Nov. 7 at the Montgomery County Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner.
Northwest of Indianapolis, the rural county is well outside Hill's district. But the Jefferson-Jackson dinner circuit is critical for Democrats interested in seeking statewide office.
The piece also notes that Evansville Mayor Johnathan Weinzapfel and Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez have been making the rounds over the last year or so.
Chris Cillizza of Washington Post's political blog 'The Fix' is one of my favorite political analysts. And Mitch Daniels is one of his favorite Republicans. Cillizza highlights the Guv's commencement speech at Butler University in one of his latest posts:
Indiana Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels delivered a condemnation of the "Baby Boomer" and a call for generational change during a recent commencement address at Butler University, a speech drawing considerable national attention as the Republican Party continues its search for fresh faces and new leaders.
"As a group, we have been self-centered, self-absorbed, self-indulgent, and all too often just plain selfish," Daniels said in the speech. "Our current Baby Boomer president has written two eloquent, erudite books, both about . . . himself."
Daniels's success in that race was built on two pillars: populism and competence. He traveled the state in an RV -- a tangible sign that his candidacy was for and by the people. And, he ran on a record in his first four years of tough choices made reasonable and executed effectively.
Combine those two pillars with his speech at Butler and it's understandable why there is chatter in some circles about Daniels as 2012 presidential candidate.
Daniels may be overshadowed somewhat but his fellow governors with higher national profiles -- Bobby Jindal (La.), Mark Sanford (S.C.), and Tim Pawlenty (Minn.) -- but his speech over the weekend shows that he is a force to be reckoned with in the reshaping of the Republican party.
If it is the day after Dyngus, that means reports on what the movers and shakers were moving and shaking up in the northern portion of the state yesterday. And no one was farther from home than Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who clearly is interested in a run in 2012.
The head of Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel's political committee acknowledged today that Weinzapfel is mulling several options for his future, including a 2012 gubernatorial campaign.
Mark Owen, chairman of Weinzapfel for Mayor and the Vanderburgh County Democratic Party, said the 43-year-old mayor is "definitely looking at the possibility (of running for governor), but also the possibility of running for re-election in 2011."
Gov. Mitch Daniels emerged relatively unscathed from his announcement that he will refuse roughly $200 million in federal dollars for Indiana's struggling Unemployment Insurance fund, but at least one member of our congressional delegation took issue with the decision.
U.S. Rep. Baron Hill said today that Indiana should accept all the federal stimulus money available for unemployment insurance - even if it means expanding the state's current program.
"I can tell you people are hurting and they need these benefits," Hill, D-9th District, said during a visit to the Indiana Statehouse. "The letters and phone calls coming into my office are from people who are desperate and they need help."
These remarks came during Congressman Hill's visit to the General Assembly -- his second this year -- and raised at least onemustache set of eyebrows at the Statehouse.
Congressman Baron Hill (D-9th district) addressed the Indiana House of Representatives this afternoon, an appearance that mirrored one during the Electoral College meeting in the same House chamber in December. It caused some in the hallway to wonder if this is the beginning of a 2012 run for governor.
If so, Hill knows that Indiana is a tough state for a Democrat to win and that might explain part of his message. He asked lawmakers to be as bi-partisan as possible. Ask yourselves, he said about members of the opposite party, "What can I do to get along, rather than what can I do to trip them up? You'll be a lot better off."
Regardless of where on the political spectrum you rate yourself, everyone is in agreement of one thing: Indiana mattering last year was really, really fun.
So why not every year? That's the thought from folks in the General Assembly and elsewhere who would like to study the possibility of moving up the Hoosier primary election date on the calendar.
Sen. Sue Landske, the Cedar Lake Republican who sponsored Senate Concurrent Resolution 28, said that 34 states hold their primaries or caucuses by Feb. 5, including 24 on that day. It's time, she says, for Indiana to study various proposals for remaking the presidential primary calendar and decide if it, too, should seek an earlier voice in picking the nominees.
The major hurdle in all of this is the fact that lawmakers would suddenly find themselves having to juggle the General Assembly session and potential primary threats. And with current ethics rules discouraging active fundraising from gavel-to-gavel, there would be more than a few adjustments needed to make any accelerated schedule work.
As anyone who has registered voters knows -- especially if you've registered on a college campus -- the number one question from people in a rush is quite simple: Can't I just register online?
The answer has always been in the negative here in the Hoosier Heartland, but Deanna Martin of the AP reports that a bill recently passed out of the Indiana Senate would push Indiana's voter outreach reluctantly into the 21st century.
Currently Indiana allows people to download voter registration applications online, but they must print and mail the forms.
Washington and Arizona, meanwhile, allow online voter registration. Voters there can go to a Web site, enter personal and driver's license information and then register to vote or change their voter registration information.
Indiana's proposed system would work in a similar way, using Bureau of Motor Vehicles information to verify that a person is eligible to vote. The BMV, secretary of state's office and county voter registration office would be involved in processing applications.
Secretary of State Todd Rokita, the state's top elections officer, said using technology such as online registration can drive down costs without compromising the integrity of elections.
What remains to be discussed is why if Rokita thinks this is such a great idea, he didn't pursue it, I don't know, prior to the 2008 election season? I'm sure it couldn't have anything to do with the fact that new voters overwhelmingly leaned Democratic last year. No, not from an elected official with such a sterling record when it comes to voter suppression.
Oh, rumor mill -- you don't take the weekend off, do you?
Two stories caught my eye over the last day or so, both dealing with political battles looming on the horizon. The first took a look at the impressive accounting of Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who appears to be raising money and spending money with more enthusiasm than most.
Year-end campaign finance reports released Wednesday indicate the committee paid for items as large as $110,672 to reimburse the Indiana Democratic Party for local party employees and their health care benefits and as small as $40 to engrave a ceremonial key to the city.
Weinzapfel declined to answer questions about his fundraising activities, referring all questions to Mark Owen, the committee's chairman.
"Weinzapfel for Mayor is run like a business," said Owen, who is also chairman of the local Democratic Party. "It's not necessarily just a re-election fund. He's spending it in his capacity as mayor but also as a political leader."
It also doesn't hurt that Weinzapfel's name has been a constant presence in the 2012 gubernatorial speculation since, well, he didn't run in 2008. But as impressive as the mayor's money is, it's worth noting that his current fundraising activities would need to be ten or twenty times greater to make waves in a statewide contest. Especially when the battle for name identification outside of the southwest will be an uphill fight for the gravely-voiced Democrat.
Elsewhere, my good friend Abdul alludes to one of the worst-kept secrets in Marion County: David Orentlicher wants to run for prosecutor. The former state representative is a nice guy and a brilliant scholar, but he'll have some ground to make up after spending the entirety of his political capital during last year's contentious primary battle in the 7th CD. I'll be taking a look at this race in the next week or so, because there are more than a few names being tossed around at this early point.
After the parades and partying have ended, I'll be spending some time in the coming weeks taking stock of where we stand on the big upcoming races around the state. That being said, even I think it is a little pointless to peg options for the 2012 gubernatorial race at this point, especially when considering a national political climate that has the potential to wildly swing back-and-forth in the next two years. Regardless, Tully lays out his top six GOP contenders:
Becky Skillman
Skillman, a popular former state senator whose strong political skills are sometimes underestimated, would be a leading candidate for the Republican nomination, particularly if Daniels made clear she was his preferred candidate.
Skillman's candidacy would require two things: 1) a campaign trail that didn't force her to take a front-and-center role as a public speaker, and 2) a highly unlikely scenario by which Mitch Daniels leaves office as some sort of folk hero. I don't see this happening, no matter what my friends on the right tell me.Mike Pence
A loyal conservative, Pence is a strong communicator whose calm demeanor would play well in Indiana.
And as a loyal conservative, Mike Pence is going to say a lot of batshit crazy things in the next few years as the Great Communicator of a Republican Party fresh out of ideas. If his cries of "Socialism!" weren't telling enough on the recent SCHIP vote, it should become increasingly clear in the next few months how much baggage a Pence candidacy would bring with it.Steve Carter
After two terms as attorney general, Carter is now out of public life. But few expect him to stay out permanently.
To be honest, this kind of scares me...Todd Rokita
No one likes Todd Rokita.
Alright, alright -- I made that one up. Still, Rokita hasn't exactly done a lot to endear himself to, well, anyone. I also wouldn't expect him to muster anywhere near the level of minority support that Mi Amigo Mitch did in the last election.Brian Bosma
The leader of the House Republican caucus long has been interested in higher office.
Yes, yes he has. And beyond that seemingly limitless ambition, Bosma brings absolutely nothing to the table.David Long
(crickets chirping)
ZZZzzZZZzzZZZzz.
Any other names floating around out there that the Tullster missed?
I've never bought into the fact that Mitch has any national political future, but suspending my sense of reality for a moment, here's a hint: If you delusional, hype-worshiping partisans want your guy to have national appeal -- hell, regional appeal for that matter -- I would stop having him make fun of everyone else.
"Michigan? Sucks! Illinois? Sucks! Ohio? Who knows, but I hear Cincinnati really, really sucks!"
Sure, it helps rally the troops here at home and distracts from the very real problems that Indiana is facing right now, but the twelve hour greatest hits compilation is ultimately going to resemble some tragic "I've Been Everywhere" cover in all the wrong ways.
Hell, even Matt Tully finds it distasteful. I mean c'mon guys.
The Republican Party is adrift. Nationally, they are a trainwreck, and despite their incessant claims that winning a Senate seat in Georgia and a close election against a criminal who know one likes, I don't think they are really bouncing back just yet.
Want further proof? Just look at them here at home, and the bizarre narratives they are hoping will catch on if they just say them long enough. Feel free to add your own in the comments, but these are a few of my current favorites.
Mitch Daniels is God Mitch Daniels won, and won big, so kudos to those guys for doing their darndest to pretend Mitch Daniels is a viable candidate for national office. I've already said why I think this is a dead end street, and I stick by my assessment unless someone can show me that Mitch Daniels has become more interesting or dynamic while I wasn't looking.
But looking a bit below the surface as to what the teeth-chattering class is trying to solidify online makes it even more clear that these guys are still looking for something, anything to focus their attention on.
Evan Bayh will LOSE in 2010
This is the new version of the "Evan Bayh is so weak he probably sits around crying" theme that we saw after the primary. You know, when Evan Bayh was going from one end of the state to the other on the stump, helping to deliver Indiana to the Democrats for the first time in 44 years.
Evan Bayh will not lose a reelection bid anytime soon, and to say so is just, well, crazy. The rumors of his political death at home are also greatly exaggerated, as we aren't really on track to see any significant statewide voice emerge until the 2012 gubernatorial contest heats up.
Oh, did I mention he has $11 million sitting in a bank account? Idle talk for idle minds.
Becky Skillman will become Governor in 2012
This is my favorite one. Why? Because it makes me laugh every time I think about it. Much like the Sarah Palin for President discussions, except I'll at least give our Lt. Guv the benefit of the doubt when it comes to her mental faculties being up for the challenge. Perhaps I'll change my tune if we see Skillman emerge from the shadows to do, well, anything over the next four years. But as it stands, I can't imagine why the Republicans are so convinced she could hold up against some of our potential 2012 candidates.
In the spirit of keeping an eye on the enemy, so to speak, I was forwarded this Jonathan Martin piece over at Politico that seems to indicate that Rep. Mike Pence (IN-6) seems to be moving toward a prominent role in the inevitable rush to fill the power vacuum left in the wake of John McCain's impending defeat.
The Republican Governor's Association will convene their annual meeting the week after Election Day in Miami. The get-together will feature panels on this election and look beyond; "The GOP In Transition" is the title of one plenary session. In addition to high-profile governors like host Charlie Crist, Texas's Rick Perry, Mississippi's Haley Barbour and South Carolina's Mark Sanford, other speakers will include former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, Rep. Mike Pence, Gen. Tommy Franks (Ret.), Bill Kristol, Bill Bennett, Frank Luntz and Byron York.
Conventional wisdom has Pence as the leading contender for the GOP nomination in the next open Senate race here, but it isn't out of the question that he could make a 2012 run for the governor's mansion. If he is truly looking for a path to the White House, he could do worse than netting himself some executive experience while waiting for the second Obama term to end.
We're getting way ahead of ourselves here -- and haven't even touched who might vie for the 6th should Pence leave a vacancy -- but some Wednesday wild speculation never hurt anyone. Thoughts?
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