Oh, rumor mill -- you don't take the weekend off, do you?
Two stories caught my eye over the last day or so, both dealing with political battles looming on the horizon. The first took a look at the impressive accounting of Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who appears to be raising money and spending money with more enthusiasm than most.
Year-end campaign finance reports released Wednesday indicate the committee paid for items as large as $110,672 to reimburse the Indiana Democratic Party for local party employees and their health care benefits and as small as $40 to engrave a ceremonial key to the city.
Weinzapfel declined to answer questions about his fundraising activities, referring all questions to Mark Owen, the committee's chairman.
"Weinzapfel for Mayor is run like a business," said Owen, who is also chairman of the local Democratic Party. "It's not necessarily just a re-election fund. He's spending it in his capacity as mayor but also as a political leader."
It also doesn't hurt that Weinzapfel's name has been a constant presence in the 2012 gubernatorial speculation since, well, he didn't run in 2008. But as impressive as the mayor's money is, it's worth noting that his current fundraising activities would need to be ten or twenty times greater to make waves in a statewide contest. Especially when the battle for name identification outside of the southwest will be an uphill fight for the gravely-voiced Democrat.
Elsewhere, my good friend Abdul alludes to one of the worst-kept secrets in Marion County: David Orentlicher wants to run for prosecutor. The former state representative is a nice guy and a brilliant scholar, but he'll have some ground to make up after spending the entirety of his political capital during last year's contentious primary battle in the 7th CD. I'll be taking a look at this race in the next week or so, because there are more than a few names being tossed around at this early point.
So what've you been hearing right before the primaries? You know me, I love to gossip. Here's what I've got. How about you?
I hear the party has pretty much given up on Schellinger. Jill Long Thompson's election night celebration is in Ft. Wayne and not with the establishment in Indy. Will "change" win over "insiders" in the gubernatorial race?
How about in the Presidential battle? Sources tell me that Team Clinton is feeling confident that they will carry the day while Team Obama is encouraged by the amount of new registrations state-wide and are banking on "change" to give him the win.
All the 7th Congressional District campaigns are sweating those new registrations too. With so many new voters outside of Center Township, will Orentlicher buck the polls? No one thinks Carolene Mays stands a chance. I've heard of three different polls now that puts Woody just a hair under Carson; perhaps the newbie "change" can sweep the day.
The happiest candidates the night before the election? Mitch Daniels, Jon Elrod and John McCain.
No word yet about Blue Indiana or Tyrion himself. Keep trying guys, they're handing threats out like candy now; you'll get one soon!
I have now been advised by counsel for Dr. Meyers that the Doctor considers my original post "libelous," and that failure to correct the record will be grounds for an immediate lawsuit.
I posted the ad in question yesterday, but today brings word that Woody Myers and his campaign aren't taking the accusations lightly. In fact, if this release from his people is to be believed, they are willing to take the matter to court.
Yesterday a competitor vying for the 7th Congressional District seat released a television advertisement criticizing Dr. Myers saying he "worked with Republicans to defeat the Patient's Bill of Rights," a statement that couldn't be further from the truth.
Today Dr. Myers will call on his competitor to take down the desperate and erroneous advertisement or face legal action at a press conference in his campaign headquarters.
I'll have more on this as it develops.
Update: From a press release that hit the streets a short while ago.
"Today I demand my competitor take down this erroneous advertisement," Myers said. "Passing false statements off as facts for the sake of political expediency is not politics of real change. The 7th District needs a Congressman willing to roll up their sleeves and fight for universal healthcare, bring good jobs to Indianapolis and make sure all our children can have a better education."
Dr. Myers has been a tireless advocate for patients his entire career and has served boldly standing up for their interests in the very venues where they need the strongest voice. The notion that he would oppose the principles put forth in the Patient's Bill of Rights is simply ridiculous.
"I've taken care of patients my entire career and fought for them in every job I've had," Myers said. "Whether in the emergency room or in a board room, patients need to be taken care of. I'm the only candidate that has taken care of them in both places and I'll work the hardest to take care of them in the halls of Congress."
Any candidate claiming real change should be above inducing politics of fear in the campaign's final days. This claim is a desperate attempt by competitors to curb the momentum the Myers campaign is gaining. Recent polls have proven this is a two-person race.
Maureen Groppe updates us on a story that Wilson has been taking great pleasure in spreading in various threads -- Dr. Woody Myers has dropped more change into the 7th District primary.
Myers, a multimillionaire, reported to the Federal Election Commission Tuesday that he has loaned his campaign $356,000 on top of nearly $1.3 million in previous loans.
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Myers is one of seven Democrats hoping to defeat Rep. Andre Carson, D-Indianapolis, May 6 for the Democratic nomination in the district.
State Rep. David Orentlicher, another challenger, previously reported loaning his campaign $327,000.
Myers was outspending the field as of April 16, the end of the last full campaign disclosure period. After April 16, candidates also have to disclose if they loan their campaigns significant sums or if they receive contributions of $1,000 or more. Carson has reported receiving about $150,000 in contributions since April 16. Much of the money came from Democratic members of Congress and political action committees representing such interests as mortgage brokers, insurance agents and wine and spirits wholesalers.
Will the self-funding turn people off? Are any of them paying attention to this race at this point?
For those looking for some good analysis of today's Supreme Court ruling on the Indiana voter identification law, I would recommend checking out Doug's take on the issue. The interesting thing about the decision to me was that it really didn't resolve anything -- three of the Justices stated that their major issue with the challenge was the lack of documented disenfranchisement. The complaint itself was launched before the law had even taken effect, so in some ways the response was a call to revisit the issue later.
(Although, as Rick Hasen notes, this will be an uphill battle.)
The Indiana Democratic Party had this to say:
"Nothing has been settled on this issue, and we will carry on our fight to remove any unnecessary barriers that stand between the citizens of this state and the ballot box," Parker said. "While the Republican Party seeks to make it more difficult for hundreds of thousands of Hoosiers to exercise this most fundamental right, we are dedicated to ensuring that every voter in this state be given the full, fair opportunity to have their voice be heard in the democratic process."
"It is unfortunate that Indiana is being asked to wait until additional disenfranchisement occurs in order to fix this flawed legislation, but this will not stop the Democratic Party from continuing to stand up for those who need a voice," he added.
Congressional candidate David Orentlicher also released a statement:
"This was a bad decision-a big step backward for voting rights law. Indiana disenfranchises voters who have ID's that are valid but that don't meet the highly restrictive requirements of the voter ID law. Students at the University of Indianapolis, for example, cannot use their student ID's to verify their identity at the polls. Moreover, the law fails to address the real area of concern with respect to voter fraud. As the Supreme Court acknowledged, voter fraud has occurred with absentee voting, and the voter ID law does not apply to absentee voters. The Indiana voter ID law really was designed to suppress voter turn-out, and it is unfortunate that the Supreme Court has upheld the law," Orentlicher stated.
I got an unexpected letter in the mail on Saturday. It was from the Marion County Democratic Party; they were writing me as a precinct committee person. Of course when it came time to choose a candidate for the special election, they decided that I wasn't a committee person and refused to let me vote against Andre Carson. Now, apparently, I'm back in but who can be sure?
The letter seriously irritated me for it's sheer idiocy and threatening posture. County Party Chair Michael O'Conner's note to party insiders insists that Congressional candidates David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays can only hand out literature at the polls that asks people to vote against them. It also asks for poll workers to rat out any other lower level volunteer who hands out literature for any Democratic candidate other than Andre Carson and threatens an unspecified punishment. Keep in mind that O'Conner has maxed out his allowable contributions to the Carson campaign.
For those who don't know, "slating" is a process designed to make money for the party. Candidates pay a fee that varies depending on the race in question and generally runs in the thousands of dollars. After you've paid your non-refundable fee, party insiders pick which candidate the party is going to be on the "slate" at a slating convention. Slated candidates get the official backing of the party and get party resources, campaign materials, and from the sounds of this letter, a goon-squad to make sure no one strays from the script.
So much for democracy in action. Why in the hell do we even need a primary? Why don't we just allow candidates to pay the Party their money and allow the insiders to pick our candidates for us so those silly voters won't have to get involved at all! For the Marion County Democratic Party to threaten sanctions against those who participate in one of the most basic functions of democracy is beyond outrageous; it's treasonous.
Copy of the letter and my analysis at Bilerico-Indiana. Just for the record, my calls to the Marion County Democratic Party about this story were not returned.
Here's another reminder that last night will bring us what I believe will be the last joint appearance by the four front-runners for the Democratic nomination in the 7th District. Here's the scoop, for those that missed it earlier in the week:
IUPUI will host on April 27 a live debate among four candidates vying for the 7th Congressional District Democratic nomination in the May 6 primary. The debate will be shown on MyNDY Channel 23 and broadcast live on WIBC, 93.1 FM.
Jim Shella, 24-Hour News 8 political reporter, will serve as moderator of the debate between U.S. Representative Andre Carson, former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers, and State Representatives David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays.
The debate will be held from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m.in the University Place Conference Center Auditorium.
My sense is that if you don't have a ticket already, you may have a hard time scoring one at this point. No worries, because you can listen to the WIBC broadcast via their website.
I never received any hard details from the organizers about the prospect of some Blue Indiana questions making their way into the event, so I have no idea if that will occur or not. I will be there, though, and if the 'net cooperates I will liveblog the event as best I can.
Expectations? Is anyone even paying attention to this race right now in Indianapolis?
Indianapolis Star columnist John Ketzenberger turns his eye toward the 7th District, and looks at one of the major issues facing the Indianapolis area: Job creation. He breaks down the various experiences of the candidates themselves, and their policy proposals, but the real question at the end of the day is whether any of the voters will be paying attention amidst all of the presidential noise.
Job creation is Job One in the 7th Congressional District.
The four major candidates for the Democratic nomination put that issue atop their list of concerns. That's music to local business leaders who spend an inordinate amount of time trying to replace lost jobs.
The public is engaged, too. An Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll showed Hoosiers care far more about job creation than anything else. So, as the primary nears, which Democrat has the best combination of business savvy and a plan to address job woes?
Jim Shella gives the scoop on the benefits Rep. Andre Carson is enjoying since his endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama.
André Carson's campaign just put out a radio ad that hits tomorrow.. 60 seconds.. Barack Obama speaking. The endorsement is the payback for Carson's super delegate endorsement of Obama.
What else Carson get?
Look for a TV ad featuring Obama, plus, the Illinois Senator led the rookie Congressman to some big donors in New York earlier this week to help get the message on the air.
Sorry for the slow start today, but I come with some good news. It looks like IUPUI will host a 7th District Democratic primary debate this weekend, and they have reached out to us with a request for questions.
I'm not exactly certain how this is supposed to work, but I think the way I will handle it is to say that any question left in this thread will be forwarded to Jim Shella, and I've been led to believe that we'll see at least one or two of them make their way into the debate.
One note: Logistically, I would think the best questions will be those that can be asked of all the candidates, rather than one specifically.
IUPUI will host on April 27 a live debate among four candidates vying for the 7th Congressional District Democratic nomination in the May 6 primary. The debate will be shown on MyNDY Channel 23 and broadcast live on WIBC, 93.1 FM.
Jim Shella, 24-Hour News 8 political reporter, will serve as moderator of the debate between U.S. Representative Andre Carson, former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers, and State Representatives David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays.
The debate will be held from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m.in the University Place Conference Center Auditorium, 850 W. Michigan Street, Indianapolis. There are limited seats available to the community. Tickets are required, contact Maggie McFarlin mmcfarli@iupui.edu or 274-7400.
Tonight there will be a big ol' forum for candidates far and wide at the Light of the World Christian Church, including those in the 7th District Democratic primary. The big four are expected to be there, and if Robert King of the Star is to be believed, those in attendance are likely to hear talk of some more controversial issues.
The forum, like a pastors' discussion on the same subjects last month, was prompted by the controversy that followed news reports about statements made by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright when he was pastor to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
Its purpose is to try to make something positive come out of the controversy, said the Rev. Mmoja Ajabu, minister of social concerns at Light of the World Christian Church, which is hosting the forum.
"Race and politics and religion have been the big old 800-pound elephant in the room, and nobody was talking about it," Ajabu said. "We said, 'Let's not try to hide it. It is on the floor now. It's on the table. Let's sit down and have a conscious conversation about this situation.' "
Also of note: Dr. Myers has lent himself another $450,000 in order to fuel his bid in this race. That brings his total investment to over $1.2 million, and almost guarantees his on-the-air presence over the next few weeks.
Word on the street is that Carolene Mays will also be hitting television screens across the 7th starting tomorrow.
Just as we were talking about rumored 7th District primary polls in another thread, congressional candidate Dr. Woody Myers throws some fuel on the fire by releasing his internal data.
The polling was done by Global Strategy Group, surveyed 402 likely voters, and had a MoE of 4.9%:
March 18-20
April 13-15
Change
Andre Carson
45%
34%
-11
Woody Myers
11%
28%
+17
David Orentlicher
22%
13%
-9
Carolene Mays
6%
7%
+1
Undecided
16%
18%
+2
Additionally, Myers is the top second choice for supporters of both Carson and Orentlicher. Among Carson voters, 40% say their second choice in the race is Myers. Among Orentlicher voters, 39% say their second choice in the race is Myers.
Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters (77%) say they have seen Myers television ads. As a result, Myers name recognition has increased dramatically, and the former state Commissioner of Health is now viewed favorably by 59% of primary voters (up from 34% last month). Carson's support in the primary has dropped 11 points despite the fact that he continues to be viewed favorably by 70% of voters (unchanged from our last survey) a sign that his support in our March survey was a carryover from his win in the special election.
There is no denying that Myers has benefited from a constant television presence over the last month, and the financial situation that campaign enjoys means they likely will be on the air through election day with no problems.
That being said, the data also seems to indicate some major fluidity in the support that most of the candidates enjoy. While the surge in name recognition is certainly cause for celebration for Myers and his supporters, I'm curious how much of the 7th District race will be lost in the presidential clamoring after Pennsylvania chimes in next week. The ability of Carson's challengers to get their message before the voters -- and their voters to the polls -- will more than likely determine the outcome in May.
A tip o' the hat to Vox in the diaries. No jokes in this one -- it deals with the health care crisis -- but they do love the cute kids. What do you think?
Earlier this week, State Representative David Orentlicher, one of the four serious competitors for the May 6th Democratic Primary, launched his first campaign advertisement. The spot is humorous, and introduces us to the candidate with the funny-sounding last name. See it below:
TV ads for Congressman André Carson slated to run on Tuesday, Wednesday, and today did not air because of a failure to make the required advance payments.
Carson campaign manager Alex Zwerdling confirmed this afternoon that no payment was made. He, at first, suggested that that it was the result of a strategic decision, then changed his answer to, "No comment."
I'm putting together my usual charts and tables to show you all where everyone was at money-wise at the end of March. Carson's campaign? They reported over $90k cash on hand, which is hardly enough to fight an air war. With Orentlicher launching his second ad this afternoon, and Dr. Woody Myers presumably willing to dip into the ol' pocketbook again to keep his name in front of the voters, this could be a tough setback for the Carson folks.
Thoughts?
Update: I've had three different people tell me that the Carson campaign staff has been asked to skip at least a week of pay. Rumors are flying fast and furious that there are some real money problems behind the scenes. That's bad news, especially if you are an incumbent who is running partially on your campaign machine's traditional success. Only time will tell whether any of this matters, though, because we've seen recently that money doesn't mean everything in Indianapolis.
This makes three of the big names in the 7th District Democratic primary who are now on the air. David O's first ad is an introduction, of sorts, and humorously addresses the reason why most folks go with David O. when it comes to talking about the state representative.
Ever since his candidacy was first rumored, the word on the street has been that Dr. Woody Myers would be willing to spend significant amounts of his personal wealth in order to bolster his bid for the 7th District congressional seat. Numbers were thrown around, but there wasn't much meat to the stories, as near as I could tell.
Until now:
That's from a Form 10 the Myers campaign filed with the FEC, providing notification of a $550,000 transfer of funds to the Myers for Congress 2008 committee from the good Doctor's personal account.
That, ladies and gents, is a big hunk o' change.
More significantly, it represents what I believe is a triggering of the "Millionaires' Amendment," which was created to help candidates facing opponents with vast personal wealth. From the FEC, we get the scoop:
Threshold Amounts
The provisions of the Millionaires' Amendment may, in certain circumstances, increase the contribution limits for House and Senate candidates facing opponents who spend personal funds in excess of certain threshold amounts. The threshold amounts and the triggers for increased limits for House and Senate candidates differ. For House candidates, the threshold amount is $350,000.
Alright, so what does that mean?
When a House candidate's "opposition personal funds amount" exceeds $350,000:
* The contribution limits for the candidate triple ($6,900 per election for 2007-08); and
* The national and State party committees may make unlimited coordinated expenditures on behalf of the candidate.
Two initial thoughts: First of all, this will open the door for candidates who have already maxed out their donor base -- Dr. David Orentlicher and Andre Carson come to mind -- to receive those same maximum donations again, and twice over at that.
Secondly, I believe the normal limit on coordinated expenditures is $42,100, but this could potentially allow the DCCC -- who has affirmed their unwavering support of Andre Carson throughout the primary -- to dramatically increase their financial support as he seeks to fight off these primary challengers.
Of course, the FEC does stipulate that if a candidate's campaign coffer equals that of their "Millionaire" opponent, they can no longer accept funds using these increased limits. This means that there's going to be a lot of careful calculations over the next month as everyone watches everyone else's financial moves.
If someone more versed in election law wants to correct me on this, feel free. As it stands, though, this could really change the financial dynamic of the 7th District race.
We're all friends here, so we can freely admit that the last campaign website for David Orentlicher's congressional bid was, to put it kindly, not very impressive. But no more, says the David O. camp, and they look set to roll out a pretty snazzy online home over the next day or so.
I'm pretty sure that they are still unpacking a few things, so to speak, but feel free to go and give it a look: http://www.OrentlicherforCongress.com
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