If there is any remaining doubt that Indiana is in play -- and despite my best efforts, there still seems to be some -- perhaps the third poll in as many days showing an Obama lead will have some effect?SurveyUSA
631 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4%
Oct. 21 - 22
President
49% - Barack Obama
45% - John McCain
3% - Other
3% - Undecided Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, McCain is down 3, Obama is up 4. Today: White voters split; McCain had led by 9. There are few plausible scenarios in which McCain loses Indiana and still wins the White House. Governor
54% - Mitch Daniels
35% - Jill Long Thompson
7% - Andy Horning
3% - Undecided Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, Daniels has increased his lead by 3 points, at a time when John McCain lost 7 net points in Indiana to Barack Obama and Republicans nationwide are being swallowed by a rising Democratic tide. Among white Hoosiers, Republican Daniels is 20 points ahead of Long Thompson, but McCain is zero points ahead of Barack Obama. Among Moderates, Republican Daniels ties Long Thompson, but Republican McCain trails Obama by 33 points. I think these results are a testament to the benefit of two things: branding, and boatloads of cash.
The former is much easier with the latter, obviously, but there is no denying that both Mitch Daniels and Barack Obama -- as different as they are in nearly every way -- have shown a similar ability to brand their campaigns as something larger than themselves, and in the process generate a much broader appeal.
One other note would be the African American results out of this survey, which I still find somewhat dubious. Obama will garner more than 80%, and Long Thompson will almost certainly not push with Daniels. For that reason, always remember your healthy grain of salt when parsing numbers.
This one's not over, folks. Get out there and hit the streets! |
