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Rasmussen: Obama down by 2, Mitch up by 16

by: Thomas

Fri Sep 19, 2008 at 12:36:53 PM EDT


Another day, another poll showing Indiana is in play. Here's the skinny:
    Rasmussen Reports
    500 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4%
    Sept. 17-18 (Aug. 22 results)

    49% - John McCain (46)
    47% - Barack Obama (42)
    Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama's home base. During the Indiana Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory. Four years ago, John Kerry racked up a 23-percentage point margin over George Bush in Lake County, the state's most northwestern county. Strong turnout in that region could have an impact on the fall election as well.
    Rasmussen Reports
    500 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4.5%
    Sept. 17-18

    56% - Mitch Daniels
    40% - Jill Long Thompson
    The latest numbers show Daniels with a 60% to 33% among unaffiliated voters in Indiana. He leads 58% to 39% among men and 54% to 41% among women.

    The Governor is viewed favorably by 62% of voters and unfavorably by 35%. He also earns good or excellent job approval ratings from 55% of voters. One in five voters (20%) say Daniels is doing a poor job as governor.

    Thompson's ratings are 46% favorable, 41% unfavorable.

Both presidential candidates have approval ratings above 50%, and it is beginning to look like this contest could come down to a question of turn-out. And considering the Obama field plan consists of over 30 regional offices with a full-time staff (volunteer and otherwise) approaching triple-digits, and McCain is still sporting his one phone, smart money is on the Democrats to get their people to the polls.
Thomas :: Rasmussen: Obama down by 2, Mitch up by 16
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There's still time... (4.00 / 3)
now if these are the same numbers we see two weeks before Election Day, and if McCain still has no ground program, I am confident of an Obama victory here.

Hoosier Progressive

Nice post (4.00 / 1)
although Rasmussen's accuracy is sad.

The Star's poll correctly predicted the Ballard win last year, although they folded like a house of cards when it was correctly pointed out, their stratified lists were not representative.  I think they've learned.

Does anyone have an accurate count on the Obama field game?  I'm told 30 offices, and I thought there was one paid person to an office, with the exception of several Indy-area offices.

At any level, it's the most-intensive Indiana presidential ground game in history--of either party.  Unless these staffers are playing pinnochle all day, their efforts are bound to have an impact.



CNN POLL OF POLLS: Close in Ohio, Indiana (4.00 / 3)
New CNN poll of polls out of Indiana and Ohio Friday show both Midwestern states appear up for grabs with less than seven weeks to go before Election Day.

According to averages of several recent surveys from both states, Obama holds a slim 1 point lead in Ohio (46-45 percent) and McCain holds a small 2 point lead in Indiana (47-45 percent).

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

ELLSWORTH FOR SENATE 2010


Nice post (4.00 / 1)
Does "poll of polls" average all polls together?  If so, while the results are encouraging, the methodology is a tad suspect.  Considering the criteria for each company's poll is so wildly different.

Nonetheless, my unscientific hometown coffee shop poll shows an interesting trend, for which I'm thankful:

Due to aging and ill parents, I'm in the old homestead twice or three times weekly.  A small northern Indiana town.  The coffee shop talk there yesterday, had surpassed all discussion of race.  Which is new for them.  Completely new.

The coffee crowd was evenly split.  A huge turn-around in the last 30 days.

Do ya think that McCain's choice of a hugely-unqualified woman, made folks realize, that opposition to a candidate based solely on race, might be a tad stupid?

Maybe we've all grown a little.  There's hope.


very good news! (4.00 / 2)
Indiana really WILL be blue

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