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IN-3 Poll: Mike Montagano closes the gap, down by only 5 points

by: Thomas

Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 16:03:05 PM EDT


Great news out of the the 3rd CD, where Democratic challenger Mike Montagano has brought Republican Mark Souder's lead down to just five points. On the heels of the DCCC's decision to add Mike to their very successful Red to Blue program, today's results reveal an upset in the making.

Some of the more interesting findings:

    Cooper & Secrest
    503 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4.4%
    October 6-7

    If election was held today...
    44% - Mark Souder (R)
    39% - Mike Montagano (D)
    4% - William Larsen (L)
    13% - Undecided

    Among those who have seen a Montagano ad...
    32% - Mark Souder (R)
    53% - Mike Montagano (D)
Souder's approval rating is still sub-fifty, with both positive and negative numbers at 48%.

This is one we can win, folks, but Mike needs your help. Be sure to head over and throw him some coin to help take out a congressman who stands against everything this election year stands for.

Thomas :: IN-3 Poll: Mike Montagano closes the gap, down by only 5 points
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Montagano and Souder (4.00 / 1)
What concerns me are his positions that are totally opposite to what many or most in the Democratic party support.

He favors a constitutional amendment to ban abortion.  Perhaps that issue will never come up, but knowing that if it does, he would vote to pass the amendment is disconcerting.

He favors fewer regulations on guns.  The Supreme Court in its recent Heller decision even acknowledged that it was acceptable to regulate guns and made quite clear that finding an individual right did mean that right was absolute.

And what does it mean to be "pro-prayer" and "pro-farm?"

I consider myself pro-prayer - pray anywhere you like, just don't mix it with government. And pro-farm?  I guess I have to ask is anyone anti-farm?

The commercial was a mistake, and it alienated many faithful in the party. It leaves me with a sense of unease as to just how Montagano would vote in Congress. His website contains only four issues and even the info provided addressing those four topics is minimal.

I will vote for Montagano but with a sense of the unknown.  


All things considered... (4.00 / 1)
...this wouldn't be a seat we could easily hold in 2010, anyway. But it would rid us of Mark Souder and provide a solid Democratic vote on a lot of issues. Greater due diligence during the primary process might have alleviated some of these concerns, but as it stands, I'll take Mike over that wacko Souder any day.

I do understand your concerns, though.


[ Parent ]
You purists... (4.00 / 2)
It would be difficult if not impossible for someone like Andre Carson (someone whose positions are lockstep with the party faithful) to win in a district like yours.  I would rather have a conservative Democrat than a conservative Republican any day.

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
It's easy to forget... (4.00 / 1)
...that this is a +16 PVI district.

[ Parent ]
Wow... (0.00 / 0)
I didn't realize it was that Republican.  That's definitely more than Pence's district.

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
Yep. (4.00 / 1)
The 6th is only +11 for the GOP. The 4th and 5th are worse, but not by much. (17 and 20, respectively)

[ Parent ]
Frankly (0.00 / 0)
I'm not even sure Andre could get elected to the Fort Wayne city council let alone U.S. Congress, but that's about as far as he'd go in that district.

ELLSWORTH FOR SENATE 2010

[ Parent ]
not really (0.00 / 0)
Andre Carson does not vote locks step with the party.  He votes for what will benefit the district.  Most of the time that is the party position but when it is not,  Andre will vote for the benefit his district.

[ Parent ]
Offensive! (0.00 / 0)
Lol at Howard giving this comment a 1.

Aside from the bailout bill, which was unique, has Andre ever voted with the Republicans, Howard?

ELLSWORTH FOR SENATE 2010


[ Parent ]
That's a bad way of looking at it. (4.00 / 2)
Andre voted against FISA.  Admittedly, a majority of Democrats voted the same way, but the party leadership was firmly in favor of FISA (Pelosi, Hoyer, Emanuel, Clyburn) and tried to put a lot of pressure on Andre to support it.

In this sense, Andre is pushing the party in a more progressive direction and has split with the party leadership on two high profile votes to do just that.  Give the man some credit, yo.


[ Parent ]
I think I give Andre plenty of credit, thanks (0.00 / 0)
Any Democrat that voted for FISA was voting with Bush and the Republicans.  Members of the Democratic leadership who were in favor of FISA were clearly not standing up for liberal, or basic democratic, for that matter, ideals.

I think it's pretty obvious that Vox was trying to point out that Andre Carson is a true, across-the-board progressive (compared to moderate-to-conservative Democrat in the mold of Montagano), which I agree with.  Either Howard misunderstood Vox's comment, or he isn't comfortable with the implication that Andre is a liberal.  Most likely, however, Howard just wanted an excuse to downrate a comment as he is so wont to do.

ELLSWORTH FOR SENATE 2010


[ Parent ]
Fair enough (4.00 / 3)
My point is just that Andre isn't really a straight-party line guy.  He is a consistent progressive vote.  There's a difference and it's an important one.

[ Parent ]
What I meant (0.00 / 0)
I certainly have no problem with Andre being a liberal..[that is what I wanted and why I worked for him so hard].  I just disagreed with the inference that he was a robotic party boss controlled vote.   Obviously he is not that.

[ Parent ]
That wasn't my point at all. (0.00 / 0)
I think there is a difference between the party faithful (that would be the voters and activists) and the party leadership (Hoyer, Pelosi, etc).  My point was that Andre does not take conservative positions and is always on the liberal side.  Ergo, he would be unlikely to win in a conservative district.

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
ok (0.00 / 0)
...and I am so glad that he is not a conservative.  It was your comment that he voted "lockstep' with the party that caused me to misunderstand the meaning of your statement.

[ Parent ]
The 3rd district (0.00 / 0)
I think it's safe to describe Souder's district as staunchly Republican.  It will only ever be represented by a right-wing nutjob like Mark Souder or a more reasonable moderate like Mike Montagano.  Montagano is a great fit for the district, and I'm very excited about his race.

Let me remind you that you can't get much further to the right than Mark Souder.  It was only recently, in the past two years, that he began distancing himself from George Bush and his policies. Before that, the only time Souder didn't vote with Bush was when Bush tried to compromise with Democrats... Before this year Souder never would have voted with Pelosi on the bailout.  In 2004 Souder had billboards all over the district with him pictured with Bush at the President's desk.  The environment has changed a little since then, and he's adapted out of political expediency.

It's time to fire Souder and send Mike Montagano to Congress.  Period.

ELLSWORTH FOR SENATE 2010


[ Parent ]
A brush with sanity (0.00 / 0)
The only time Souder ever had a brushing acquaintance with sanity was when he ignored the GOP juggernaut on impeaching President William Jefferson Clinton. He was one of the very few Republicans in the House to vote against that attempted coup d'etat.

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