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Research 2000: Daniels 49, Long Thompson 45

by: Thomas

Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 19:09:43 PM EDT

The second part of WISH-TV's statewide survey has hit the streets, and it reveals a race that is still competitive with less than a month remaining on the campaign trail.

Research 2000 for WISH-TV

Two more interesting findings in the poll indicate Jill Long Thompson is winning more of the independent vote but just barely. Also, 22 percent of black voters are still undecided. That could be where this race is won or lost.

While Republicans scramble to discredit this poll, the question remains: How many "outliers" does it take to make a trendline? Until the polling stops jumping all over the place, I doubt we'll have an answer.

Thomas :: Research 2000: Daniels 49, Long Thompson 45

Tags: Gov - Jill Long Thompson, Gov - Mitch Daniels, Election 2008, Governor 2008, (All Tags)

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Research 2000: Daniels 49, Long Thompson 45 | 15 comments

ok (0.00 / 0)

I like it but I dont understand it....it must be totally an anti Mitch vote.

by: Howard C. @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 18:13:11 PM CDT

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There have been four statewide polls... (0.00 / 0)

...taken between Sept. 28 and Oct. 3. Two of them (both done by Research 2000) show Daniels with an average lead of about 2.5 points. The other two show Daniels with an average lead of about 19 points.

Meanwhile, all of those polls show the presidential race in Indiana to be close. Three of them show it within the margin of error.

I'm open to any reasonable explanation / speculation / idle guesses on how this happens.

by: Anonymous123 @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:46:40 PM CDT

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I'll take speculation for $100 (4.00 / 2)

It could be as a result of the demographic models they use. I haven't looked at them; but it's possible R2K is using a model that takes into account regional difference in minority levels, i.e. calling a sample in Lake Co. that is representative of Lake county instead of one representative of Indiana as a whole.

They could be assuming that Democratic ID is higher then most would normally assume in Indiana; I've seen a poll (I just don't remember which one) that had an 8% Democratic advantage; that's an assumption a lot of pollsters would disagree with when it comes to Indiana.

It is entirely possible that they have a model the use that is pure genius, or complete junk. But the fact that two separate polling outfits have had similar results is harder to dismiss then Brian Howey would have you believe.

by: Hank Scorpio @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 21:16:13 PM CDT

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Selzer (4.00 / 1)

Remember, Selzer is the only one to have used their model with any success in the primaries - they were the only ones who picked up on Obama in Iowa. Whether that will translate to the general in Indiana is anyone's guess, but I've been quibbling with SUSA's dour turnout predictions for young voters and African American voters for a while now.

I just wonder how long the Daniels campaign can keep up with their Bart Peterson imitation and ignore JLT.

--

http://twitter.com/bmk

by: BrianK @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 10:43:36 AM CDT

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Selzer's most recent Indiana poll... (4.00 / 2)

...also showed McCain beating Obama handily in Lake County. (!?) I don't know whether the rest of her model is good, but I'm willing to bet heavily that McCain never was - and never will be - ahead of Obama in Lake County.

She's clearly good at polling the Iowa caucuses. I've got my doubts about her general election polling.

by: Anonymous123 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 14:26:45 PM CDT

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Push Button Polls (4.00 / 2)

Survey 2000 poll are automated polls so anyone who answers the phone can get poll, and there is a possibility that people are lying. the wish, wrtv, and wsbt are all polls where people were talking to people. they are more reliable.

by: RegionLulz @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 08:24:53 AM CDT

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i mean survey usa not survey 2000 (0.00 / 0)

by: RegionLulz @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 08:26:04 AM CDT

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The possibility of lying... (4.00 / 1)

...might be greater with a live call, especially when asking about Obama. Former Gov. Wilder of Virginia, an African-American, was well ahead of his GOP opponent in pre-election polls. On election day, he won a very narrow victory. Why were the polls so wrong? The prevailing theory was that white voters were afraid to tell pollsters they weren't voting for Wilder for fear of being considered racist. I suspect it's easier to be truthful when all you have to do is press a button rather than give your answer to a live person.

by: Anonymous123 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 14:33:59 PM CDT

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Jill will be appearing with Obama tomorrow in Indianapolis. (4.00 / 1)

Hopefully that will help some of the undecided black/African American voters make up their minds. Some visits to some majority black churches also seems in order.

Good news, overall. Still a lot of work to do and very little time to do it in!

"It is the first responsibility of every citizen to question authority." --Benjamin Franklin

Yes, even Democratic authority.

by: Daily Activist @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 18:36:56 PM CDT

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22% (4.00 / 1)

My guess is those voters simply don't know who the Dem nominee is. On election day, they will vote Democratic.

Hoosier Progressive

by: Vox Populi @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 22:37:20 PM CDT

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If she is polling this close ... (0.00 / 0)

imagine how much further she'd be ahead if she were actually running an aggressive campaign

http://justmoreliberaltalk.blo...

by: kcflood @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 00:04:54 AM CDT

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She's running an aggressive campaign... (4.00 / 1)

with the resources she has available. She just needs $$$

Hoosier Progressive

by: Vox Populi @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 00:13:06 AM CDT

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but (0.00 / 0)

she should not have run, if she lacked the ability to raise funds.

by: Howard C. @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:40:58 AM CDT

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I think kcflood... (4.00 / 1)

...may mean if she had been running an aggressive campaign from the beginning, not just now that the polls show her within striking distance.

I still contend this race was won or lost in the six weeks after the primary.

by: Thomas @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:42:02 AM CDT

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If the new polls are to be believed... (4.00 / 2)

then maybe both you and I are wrong about the "overness" of this election.

Hoosier Progressive

by: Vox Populi @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:38:11 AM CDT

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Research 2000: Daniels 49, Long Thompson 45 | 15 comments

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