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Is an Obama-Bayh ticket a realistic possibility?

by: Thomas

Sun Feb 24, 2008 at 10:07:19 AM EST


Sylvia A. Smith dedicates her Sunday column to exploring the possibility of a fading Clinton campaign, and what it could mean for Sen. Evan Bayh, who threw his support behind his colleague from New York many months ago. Her argument: An Obama-Bayh ticket may not be on anyone's radar screen at the moment, but that doesn't mean you should count him out just yet.
Obama will have to fill out the ticket with someone older because there is no other national political figure younger than Obama. But if his veep choice is too old, it will detract from Obama's image as the agent for change. Bayh is 55 (Obama is 46) but comes off as boyish rather than middle-aged - young kids, no paunch, no gray.

Political pundits who have studied this business in far more depth than I say Bayh would help any Democratic ticket in Ohio, a key swing state. They say that because Bayh's Senate and gubernatorial campaigns have aired ads in Hoosier TV markets that also reach Ohio voters, he is recognized there and liked.

I'm of the school that a vice presidential candidate can possibly influence the outcome in his or her own state (though that's not so likely in red Indiana) but beyond that can only hurt - not help - the ticket.

But if Obama is of the first view - that a running mate could tweak the outcome in a state or region - Bayh scores as well as anyone else in this geography test.

Personally, I don't see Bayh making his way on an Obama ticket. I think that the smart money would be on someone from a much more promising area for the national Democratic infrastructure: The West.

That being said, Bayh's name is almost always on these speculative lists, if for no other reason than he is viewed as a "safe" bet for presidential candidates looking to avoid controversy and unnecessary attention.

Of course, all of this assumes that Hillary Clinton is on her way out, which is by no means a done deal at this stage of the game.

What says you?

Thomas :: Is an Obama-Bayh ticket a realistic possibility?
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Not Bayh (0.00 / 0)
I think John Edwards is much more likely than Evan Bayh.  Edwards is just a much more talented politician and appeals to the groups Obama is likely to target (rural white voters).

Even more likely is Tim Kaine, the Virginia governor.  He was an early supporter of Obama, helped engineer a landslide win in his state for Obama, is young, speaks Spanish fluently, and is a native Kansan (like Obama's mom).

Hoosier Progressive


I think Edwards is more likely for Clinton... (4.00 / 1)
...even if their campaigns were so dissimilar. Obama is going to need foreign policy credentials in his VP choice, especially if some event highlighting national security were to occur in the next eight months.

You could make a (weak) argument for Bayh in this regard, but Edwards would only reinforce the "inexperienced" mantra that McCain will take up with full force. Experience is all he has going for him, so neutralizing that would be a huge benefit.


[ Parent ]
Sebelius if it's Obama (0.00 / 0)
That's the name I hear floated the most...doesn't help on the foreign policy credentials, but actually I don't think Obama's VP needs that.  Strong SoS and SoD names (and there are many to choose from) will be more than enough on that front.  After all, when you look at the team GWB assembled, while Cheney may have reassured some (though foreign policy wasn't that big of a deal in '00), the bigger coup was Powell.

I don't know... (4.00 / 1)
That might be more change than America is ready for.  And Sebelius gave a less-than-inspiring response to Bush's final State of the Union (seen here).  I tend to agree with Thomas that he needs a foreign policy guy on the ticket, so maybe Wes Clark?   Clark is a Clinton man, but has unimpeachable military/foreign policy credentials.

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
I think Clark has hit... (0.00 / 0)
...the campaign trail a bit too hard on behalf of Hillary to make his way on to an Obama ticket.

I would be very surprised if he isn't part of the eventual Democratic administration, though, no matter who the candidate is.


[ Parent ]
IMO (0.00 / 0)
Sebelius flubbed her chance at the Democratic response to the SOTU. There is no way Obama would pick Bayh... for two reasons...one is that he's been a huge Hillary supporter, and two, it makes no sense geographically (not to mention how damn boring he is...). Obama needs someone that is like Edwards... that will court the southern vote. I do thing Kaine would be a good pick and Mark Warner would be a good pick as well.  

[ Parent ]
totally (0.00 / 0)
agreed.. Marti is the woman!!!

[ Parent ]
Not my personal opinion (0.00 / 0)
just what I've heard.  I would love to see Wes Clark, though VP?  Don't know about that spot but definitely should be in the admin.  He is really out there for Hillary though, I can't really see it with Obama.  An interesting one would be Gov. Strickland, but he is so far for HRC too that I could only see that if Hillary stages a comeback.  You know, Richardson is sure to pop up somewhere for either HRC or Obama, though with his rumored baggage, probably not VP either, though he certainly has the credentials.  Of course, Biden's name is out there too and that would fill the foreign policy credentials...

Biden? (0.00 / 0)
I completely forgot about him.

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
Meh. (0.00 / 0)
I think if Biden had shown any capacity for exciting people in the primary, he might have a chance, but as it stands he's from an area of the country that will be solidly Democratic anyway, and he doesn't exactly scream of "change" with his years of service in the Senate.

Qualified? Certainly. Politically viable? Not so sure.


[ Parent ]
Richardson has already blown his chance at VP (0.00 / 0)
so now his best bet is SoS

[ Parent ]
Obama/Bayh Ticket? (0.00 / 0)
If the purpose is to put the voters to sleep... then yes. Otherwise absolutely NO.

Speaking of... (4.00 / 1)
...can I just say that I was at the McCain event, and it was the most fucking boring thing I have attended since the last time I heard Becky Skillman speak.

That place was so dead before he arrived, you would have thought a funeral was going on. They showed a little life when he arrived on the scene, but there was nothing more than tepid applause, honestly.

It doesn't matter who Obama picks in that regard, they are going to be a more exciting ticket than anything headed by McCain.


[ Parent ]
That's just Republicans for you. (0.00 / 0)
They are boring.  Especially in bed.

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
Hm.. (4.00 / 2)
I'll remember that.. but I really wanna check it out with Elrod.  He's still single, right?

[ Parent ]
Meh? haha (0.00 / 0)
Again, don't disagree but his name is out there.  Actually, Biden did quite well for himself in the Primary in terms of people liking him personally and did quite well in the early debates as well. Presidential and vice preferences are hardly the same.   In fact, many people in Iowa for example, commented in not voting for Biden that they thought he'd be a good vp, not presidential candidate.  

After all, this entire article would be a bit moot based on that analysis given that Bayh abandoned his presidential run before the season even really kicked off and based in part on a not generating a lot of excitement for his run, no?  I think the geography issue is the biggest stumbling block for a Biden ticket, not his presidential run.


no Bayh no way (4.00 / 1)
Why would Obama want to put a republican senator on his ticket?  I know he runs as a Democrat but look at how much he votes with Bush.  Only one other Dem Senator voted more with the Bush admnistration.  He is bland, has no ideas, does not represent change but the old guard establishment that Obama wants to change.  Bayh couldn't deliver Indiana or any other state and would be put the country to sleep.  He would make McCain look exciting.

Obama needs (0.00 / 0)
a governor or a military man to fill out the executive or foreign policy needs.   Bayh is hardly the first and the Dems will never take IN anyway.

I'd wager one of the VA people (Gov. Kaine or Sen Webb) or a woman.


I oppose Webb as VP. (0.00 / 0)
He voted for telecom immunity in the FISA bill.  And I REALLY oppose Bayh for VP since he votes with the Republicans so frickin' often.

"It is the first responsibility of every citizen to question authority."  --Benjamin Franklin

Yes, even Democratic authority.


[ Parent ]
bad luck (4.00 / 1)
Isn't it our luck to get a Dem senator and then he votes with Bush....I am old enough to remember his father...now there was a REAL Democrat.

[ Parent ]
A real Democrat... (0.00 / 0)
who lost to Dan Quayle.

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
Bayh the father (4.00 / 1)
Birch Bayh was a liberal heavy-hitter as Speaker of the Indiana Assembly representing the Terre Haute/Sullivan area.  His 1962 campaign song (with lyrics adapted by his wife, Marvella, to a tune from a musical, Most Happy Fella):  "Hey look him over he's our kind of guy; Indiana's next senator will be our Birch Bayh."  Despite major heat as a Kennedy supporter from the Star and incumbent Homer Capehart over the Cuban Missile emplacements, Bayh became Senator by just 8,000 votes.  He went on to become Chair of Senate Judiciary and author of the 18-year-old voting rights amendment.

And he only lost to Quayle by about 100,000 votes because Reagan had a landslide win in the Hoosier Republic in 1980.

WatermelonGrower, Berkeley California


[ Parent ]
Dodd? (0.00 / 0)
Some friends and I think Christopher Dodd would be a great addition.  He has shown real spine in standing up to Bush in the Senate over FISA, and even bucked the Party leadership which was all too willing to yield to the Bushies on that.

Also, an Obama/Dodd ticket almost sounds like a Middle Eastern country.  ;-)


Once again -- (4.00 / 1)
I think he gets screwed geographically.

I'm also somewhat convinced that Obama can't choose another Senator. I could be off-base with that, though.


[ Parent ]
Bob Graham (0.00 / 0)
He's got a ton of experience, voted against the Iraq War resolution, and is popular enough to possibly flip Florida.

Hoosier Progressive

I had completely forgotten about him... (0.00 / 0)
...to be perfectly honest.

What has he been up to?


[ Parent ]
Education I believe. (0.00 / 0)
Graham was the first candidate I got behind in 2004.  Then Dean.  Then Edwards.  But really, he's an elder statesman, brings FP cred to the ticket, and helps in a swing state.  And he's old enough that he won't run for president himself (he's McCain's age).

Hoosier Progressive

[ Parent ]
Bayh's not an option (4.00 / 1)
I'd say right now any conceivable short list for Obama goes something like this: Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, John Edwards, Wes Clark ... and maybe some real long shots, like Joe Biden. A name I'd love to see on the list is Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

Obama cannot pick someone who contradicts his "change" message. He can't do the conventional wisdom thing and pick someone whose "experience" completes a balancing act with his relative inexperience.

Edwards would make a great VP, but perhaps an even better Attorney General. Lord knows it's going to take a lot of work to clean up the DoJ, and he might be one of the very few men capable of handling that job.

Richardson and Clark seem like solid choices for administration posts -- SoS and SoD, respectively, perhaps?

Sebelius, Napolitano and Kaine seem like the obvious top choices for VP.

But Bayh ... remains somewhat of an empty suit. He doesn't offer enough to a ticket to make him worth considering.

Kaine, honestly, is probably the best choice. But I'd very much prefer Sebelius or Napolitano. My top choice is Schweitzer.


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